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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Carlos Alcaraz 41%
Next is Ben Shelton at 12.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 37 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Carlos Alcaraz41%49%41% fair46¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 37 min ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Carlos Alcaraz41%Kalshi 49%(41% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Carlos Alcaraz
41%
49%
41% fair
46¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Carlos Alcaraz
41%
Kalshi 49%(41% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Last price
- 49%
- Fair, margin removed
- 41%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $27K
Ben Shelton12.6%15%12.6% fair8¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 37 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Ben Shelton12.6%Kalshi 15%(12.6% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Ben Shelton
12.6%
15%
12.6% fair
8¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Ben Shelton
12.6%
Kalshi 15%(12.6% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ben Shelton
- Last price
- 15%
- Fair, margin removed
- 12.6%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $3K
Tommy Paul9.2%11%9.2% fair4¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 37 min ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Tommy Paul9.2%Kalshi 11%(9.2% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Tommy Paul
9.2%
11%
9.2% fair
4¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Tommy Paul
9.2%
Kalshi 11%(9.2% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tommy Paul
- Last price
- 11%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.2%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $2K
Lorenzo Musetti6.7%8%6.7% fair2¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 37 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Lorenzo Musetti6.7%Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Lorenzo Musetti
6.7%
8%
6.7% fair
2¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Lorenzo Musetti
6.7%
Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lorenzo Musetti
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 6.7%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $346
Taylor Fritz5.9%7%5.9% fair4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 37 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Taylor Fritz5.9%Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Taylor Fritz
5.9%
7%
5.9% fair
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Taylor Fritz
5.9%
Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taylor Fritz
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.9%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $712
Arthur Fils4.2%5%4.2% fair5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 37 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Arthur Fils4.2%Kalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Arthur Fils
4.2%
5%
4.2% fair
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Arthur Fils
4.2%
Kalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arthur Fils
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.2%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $206
Casper Ruud2.5%3%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 37 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Casper Ruud2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Casper Ruud
2.5%
3%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Casper Ruud
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Casper Ruud
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $226
Nuno Borges2.5%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 37 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Nuno Borges2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nuno Borges
2.5%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nuno Borges
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nuno Borges
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Thiago Agustin Tirante2.5%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 37 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Thiago Agustin Tirante2.5%Kalshi 3%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
2.5%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Thiago Agustin Tirante
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Flavio Cobolli1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 37 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Flavio Cobolli1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Flavio Cobolli
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Flavio Cobolli
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Flavio Cobolli
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $250
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Quentin Halys1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 37 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Quentin Halys1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Quentin Halys
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Quentin Halys
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Quentin Halys
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $15
Tomas Martin Etcheverry1.7%2%2¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 37 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Tomas Martin Etcheverry1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
1.7%
2%
2¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $47
Ugo Humbert1.7%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 37 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Ugo Humbert1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ugo Humbert
1.7%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ugo Humbert
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ugo Humbert
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $246
Jan-Lennard Struff1.3%1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 37 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Jan-Lennard Struff1.3%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Jan-Lennard Struff
1.3%
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Jan-Lennard Struff
1.3%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jan-Lennard Struff
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Alex Michelsen0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 37 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Alex Michelsen0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alex Michelsen
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alex Michelsen
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex Michelsen
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $94
Alex Molcan0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 37 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Alex Molcan0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alex Molcan
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Alex Molcan
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alex Molcan
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Arthur Rinderknech0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 37 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Arthur Rinderknech0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Arthur Rinderknech
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Arthur Rinderknech
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arthur Rinderknech
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Ignacio Buse0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 37 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Ignacio Buse0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ignacio Buse
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Ignacio Buse
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ignacio Buse
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Rinky Hijikata0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 37 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Rinky Hijikata0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Rinky Hijikata
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Rinky Hijikata
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rinky Hijikata
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Tomas Machac0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 37 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Tomas Machac0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tomas Machac
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 37 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tomas Machac
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 37 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tomas Machac
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 37 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, ATP
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Ben Shelton
- Tommy Paul
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "ATP Paris Winner". Carlos Alcaraz leads at 41%. Next is Ben Shelton at 12.6%. $43K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 12, 2026.
Kalshi event status: open
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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