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What the markets expect
Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon 84.5%
Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 78.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon84.5%84.5%84¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed85¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon84.5%Polymarket 84.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon
84.5%
84.5%
84¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
85¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon
84.5%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon
- Last price
- 84.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $2K
O/U 0.5 Rounds78.5%78.5%74¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed83¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $120 (1.20x)O/U 0.5 Rounds78.5%Polymarket 78.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
78.5%
78.5%
74¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
83¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
78.5%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 78.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 74¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
Ends before Round 3?59%59%54¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Ends before Round 3?59%Polymarket 59%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Ends before Round 3?
59%
59%
54¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Ends before Round 3?
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
Fight won by submission?53%53%48¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed58¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Fight won by submission?53%Polymarket 53%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Fight won by submission?
53%
53%
48¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
58¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Fight won by submission?
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds52%52%49¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)O/U 1.5 Rounds52%Polymarket 52%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
52%
52%
49¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
Austin Bashi by Submission48%Not listed48%47¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 5 min ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Austin Bashi by Submission48%Kalshi 48%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Austin Bashi by Submission
48%
Not listed
48%
47¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Austin Bashi by Submission
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Bashi by Submission
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $229
Ends before Round 2?37%37%32¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed42¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $238 (2.38x)Ends before Round 2?37%Polymarket 37%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Ends before Round 2?
37%
37%
32¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
42¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Ends before Round 2?
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 37%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds35.5%35.5%34¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)O/U 2.5 Rounds35.5%Polymarket 35.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
35.5%
35.5%
34¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
37¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 35.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
Bashi in Round 133%33%28¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed38¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Bashi in Round 133%Polymarket 33%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Bashi in Round 1
33%
33%
28¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
38¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Bashi in Round 1
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bashi in Round 1
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
Fight to Go the Distance?31%31%27¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Fight to Go the Distance?31%Polymarket 31%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
31%
31%
27¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Decision or Draw30%30%25¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Decision or Draw30%Polymarket 30%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Decision or Draw
30%
30%
25¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Decision or Draw
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
Fight won by decision?30%30%25¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Fight won by decision?30%Polymarket 30%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight won by decision?
30%
30%
25¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Fight won by decision?
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
Austin Bashi by Decision20%Not listed20%18¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 5 min ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Austin Bashi by Decision20%Kalshi 20%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Austin Bashi by Decision
20%
Not listed
20%
18¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Austin Bashi by Decision
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Bashi by Decision
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $121
Bashi in Round 219%19%15¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Bashi in Round 219%Polymarket 19%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Bashi in Round 2
19%
19%
15¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Bashi in Round 2
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bashi in Round 2
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?17.5%17.5%13¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Fight won by KO/TKO?17.5%Polymarket 17.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
17.5%
17.5%
13¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Austin Bashi by KO/TKO/DQ15%Not listed15%13¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 5 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Austin Bashi by KO/TKO/DQ15%Kalshi 15%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Austin Bashi by KO/TKO/DQ
15%
Not listed
15%
13¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Austin Bashi by KO/TKO/DQ
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Bashi by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $1K
Bashi to win by KO/TKO?12%12%7¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Bashi to win by KO/TKO?12%Polymarket 12%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Bashi to win by KO/TKO?
12%
12%
7¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Bashi to win by KO/TKO?
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bashi to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Bashi in Round 39%9%4¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Bashi in Round 39%Polymarket 9%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Bashi in Round 3
9%
9%
4¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Bashi in Round 3
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bashi in Round 3
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Carlos Calderon by Decision8%Not listed8%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 5 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Carlos Calderon by Decision8%Kalshi 8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Carlos Calderon by Decision
8%
Not listed
8%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Carlos Calderon by Decision
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Calderon by Decision
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $109
Calderon to win by KO/TKO?6.5%6.5%3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Calderon to win by KO/TKO?6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Calderon to win by KO/TKO?
6.5%
6.5%
3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Calderon to win by KO/TKO?
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Calderon to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Calderon in Round 16%6%3¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Calderon in Round 16%Polymarket 6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Calderon in Round 1
6%
6%
3¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Calderon in Round 1
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Calderon in Round 1
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Calderon in Round 25.5%5.5%3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Calderon in Round 25.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Calderon in Round 2
5.5%
5.5%
3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Calderon in Round 2
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Calderon in Round 2
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Calderon in Round 35%5%3¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 5 min agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Calderon in Round 35%Polymarket 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Calderon in Round 3
5%
5%
3¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Calderon in Round 3
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Calderon in Round 3
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Carlos Calderon by KO/TKO/DQ5%Not listed5%3¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 5 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Carlos Calderon by KO/TKO/DQ5%Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Carlos Calderon by KO/TKO/DQ
5%
Not listed
5%
3¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Carlos Calderon by KO/TKO/DQ
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Calderon by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Carlos Calderon by Submission5%Not listed5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 5 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Carlos Calderon by Submission5%Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Carlos Calderon by Submission
5%
Not listed
5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Carlos Calderon by Submission
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Calderon by Submission
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Draw/No Contest2.5%Not listed2.5%2¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 5 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Draw/No Contest2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Draw/No Contest
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
2¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Draw/No Contest
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/No Contest
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Paramount+
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Ends before Round 3?
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon: Method of Victory". Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon leads at 84.5%. Next is O/U 0.5 Rounds at 78.5%. $9K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 21, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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