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What the markets expect
Ends before Round 3? 74%
Next is Fight won by KO/TKO? at 70%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Ends before Round 3?74%74%72¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed76¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $132 (1.32x)Ends before Round 3?74%Polymarket 74%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Ends before Round 3?
74%
74%
72¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
76¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Ends before Round 3?
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 74%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?70%70%60¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed80¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Fight won by KO/TKO?70%Polymarket 70%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
70%
70%
60¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
80¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
Hasan to win by KO/TKO?64%64%55¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed73¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $137 (1.37x)Hasan to win by KO/TKO?64%Polymarket 64%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Hasan to win by KO/TKO?
64%
64%
55¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
73¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Hasan to win by KO/TKO?
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hasan to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds64%64%50¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed78¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $128 (1.28x)O/U 0.5 Rounds64%Polymarket 64%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
64%
64%
50¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
78¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
Ends before Round 2?48%48%46¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Ends before Round 2?48%Polymarket 48%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Ends before Round 2?
48%
48%
46¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Ends before Round 2?
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Bilal Hasan to win in Round 146%Not listed46%45¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 24s ago46¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Bilal Hasan to win in Round 146%Kalshi 46%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Bilal Hasan to win in Round 1
46%
Not listed
46%
45¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
46¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Bilal Hasan to win in Round 1
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bilal Hasan to win in Round 1
- Last price
- 46%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
- Volume
- $772
Hasan in Round 144%44%38¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Hasan in Round 144%Polymarket 44%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Hasan in Round 1
44%
44%
38¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Hasan in Round 1
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hasan in Round 1
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds41.5%41.5%41¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed42¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $238 (2.38x)O/U 1.5 Rounds41.5%Polymarket 41.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
41.5%
41.5%
41¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
42¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 41.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
- Volume
- $60K
Hasan in Round 233.5%33.5%17¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Hasan in Round 233.5%Polymarket 33.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Hasan in Round 2
33.5%
33.5%
17¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Hasan in Round 2
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hasan in Round 2
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds31.5%31.5%17¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)O/U 2.5 Rounds31.5%Polymarket 31.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
31.5%
31.5%
17¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 31.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Decision or Draw30%30%10¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Decision or Draw30%Polymarket 30%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Decision or Draw
30%
30%
10¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Decision or Draw
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Fight won by decision?30%30%11¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Fight won by decision?30%Polymarket 30%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by decision?
30%
30%
11¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by decision?
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by submission?27.5%27.5%6¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Fight won by submission?27.5%Polymarket 27.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by submission?
27.5%
27.5%
6¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by submission?
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Hasan in Round 327%27%4¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Hasan in Round 327%Polymarket 27%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Hasan in Round 3
27%
27%
4¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Hasan in Round 3
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Hasan in Round 3
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Gurule in Round 126.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Gurule in Round 126.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Gurule in Round 1
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Gurule in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gurule in Round 1
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Gurule in Round 226.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Gurule in Round 226.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Gurule in Round 2
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Gurule in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gurule in Round 2
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Gurule in Round 326.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Gurule in Round 326.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Gurule in Round 3
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Gurule in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gurule in Round 3
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Gurule to win by KO/TKO?26.5%26.5%4¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Gurule to win by KO/TKO?26.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Gurule to win by KO/TKO?
26.5%
26.5%
4¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Gurule to win by KO/TKO?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gurule to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Bilal Hasan to win in Round 224%Not listed24%21¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 24s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Bilal Hasan to win in Round 224%Kalshi 24%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Bilal Hasan to win in Round 2
24%
Not listed
24%
21¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Bilal Hasan to win in Round 2
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bilal Hasan to win in Round 2
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $308
Fight to Go the Distance?16%16%14¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Fight to Go the Distance?16%Polymarket 16%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
16%
16%
14¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest14.5%Not listed14.5%13¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 24s ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Decision / Draw / No Contest14.5%Kalshi 14.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest
14.5%
Not listed
14.5%
13¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Decision / Draw / No Contest
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Decision / Draw / No Contest
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan12%12%11¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan12%Polymarket 12%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan
12%
12%
11¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $11K
Bilal Hasan to win in Round 311%Not listed11%9¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 24s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Bilal Hasan to win in Round 311%Kalshi 11%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Bilal Hasan to win in Round 3
11%
Not listed
11%
9¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Bilal Hasan to win in Round 3
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bilal Hasan to win in Round 3
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $72
Luis Gurule to win in Round 12.5%Not listed2.5%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 24s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Luis Gurule to win in Round 12.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Luis Gurule to win in Round 1
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Luis Gurule to win in Round 1
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Luis Gurule to win in Round 1
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Luis Gurule to win in Round 22%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 24s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Luis Gurule to win in Round 22%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Luis Gurule to win in Round 2
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Luis Gurule to win in Round 2
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Luis Gurule to win in Round 2
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Luis Gurule to win in Round 32%Not listed2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 24s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Luis Gurule to win in Round 32%Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Luis Gurule to win in Round 3
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Luis Gurule to win in Round 3
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Luis Gurule to win in Round 3
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $25
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Paramount+
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Ends before Round 3?
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Hasan to win by KO/TKO?
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Ends before Round 3? for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule: Round of Victory". Ends before Round 3? leads at 74%. Next is Fight won by KO/TKO? at 70%. $72K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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