The Prediction Markets

Bitcoin above ___ on April 16?

Closed
Apr 16, 2026
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 16, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 197 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
62,000
99.1%
Polymarket 99.1%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
62,000
Last price
99.1%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
98.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
64,000
98.4%
Polymarket 98.4%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
64,000
Last price
98.4%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
98.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
66,000
96.9%
Polymarket 96.9%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
66,000
Last price
96.9%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
68,000
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
68,000
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
70,000
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
72,000
63%
Polymarket 63%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
74,000
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
74,000
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket
76,000
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
76,000
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
78,000
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
78,000
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Polymarket
80,000
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$766
Trade this on Polymarket
82,000
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 4728 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,000
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 197 d ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 62,000
  • 64,000
  • 66,000

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Bitcoin above ___ on April 16?". 62,000 last traded at 99.1%. Next is 64,000 at 98.4%. $31K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 16, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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