The Prediction Markets

Bitcoin above ___ on May 22?

Closed
May 22, 2026
Traded
$50K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 22, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
70,000
97.7%
Polymarket 97.7%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
97.7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
97.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
72,000
95.2%
Polymarket 95.2%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 95.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
95.2%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
95.2¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
74,000
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
74,000
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
76,000
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
76,000
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
78,000
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
78,000
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
80,000
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
82,000
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,000
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
84,000
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
84,000
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$598
Trade this on Polymarket
88,000
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
88,000
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
90,000
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
86,000
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3821 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
86,000
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 70,000
  • 72,000
  • 74,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Bitcoin above ___ on May 22?". 70,000 last traded at 97.7%. Next is 72,000 at 95.2%. $50K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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