The Prediction Markets

Bitcoin above ___ on May 5?

Closed
May 5, 2026
Traded
$44K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 5, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 175 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
68,000
99.7%
Polymarket 99.7%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
68,000
Last price
99.7%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
99.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
66,000
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
66,000
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
99.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
70,000
98.4%
Polymarket 98.4%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
98.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
98.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
72,000
95%
Polymarket 95%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
74,000
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
74,000
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
76,000
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
76,000
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Polymarket
78,000
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
78,000
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
80,000
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
82,000
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,000
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
84,000
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
84,000
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
86,000
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
86,000
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 68,000
  • 66,000
  • 70,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Bitcoin above ___ on May 5?". 68,000 last traded at 99.7%. Next is 66,000 at 99.5%. $44K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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