The Prediction Markets

Bitcoin above ___ on October 25?

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$14.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

74,000 99.6%

Next is 72,000 at 99.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
74,000
99.6%
Polymarket 99.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
74,000
Last price
99.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
99.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
72,000
99.3%
Polymarket 99.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
99.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.4¢
Sell Yes
99.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
76,000
98.5%
Polymarket 98.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
76,000
Last price
98.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
98.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
78,000
96.2%
Polymarket 96.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
78,000
Last price
96.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96.4¢
Sell Yes
95.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
80,000
79.3%
Polymarket 79.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 79.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $126 (1.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000
Last price
79.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
79.6¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$126 (1.26x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
82,000
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,000
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
84,000
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
84,000
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $250000
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $250000
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
86,000
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
86,000
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $200000
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $200000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$12.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
90,000
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
88,000
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
88,000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
92,000
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
92,000
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 74,000
  • 72,000
  • 76,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 74,000 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bitcoin above ___ on October 25?". 74,000 leads at 99.6%. Next is 72,000 at 99.3%. $14.0M has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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