The Prediction Markets

Bitcoin price on May 3?

Closed
May 3, 2026
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 3, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 175 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
76,000-78,000
41.2%
Polymarket 44%(41.3% fair)polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
76,000-78,000
Last price
44%
Fair, margin removed
41.3%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
74,000-76,000
27.6%
Polymarket 29.5%(27.7% fair)polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
74,000-76,000
Last price
29.5%
Fair, margin removed
27.7%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
78,000-80,000
15%
Polymarket 16%(15% fair)polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
78,000-80,000
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
15%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
72,000-74,000
6.6%
Polymarket 7%polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,000-74,000
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
80,000-82,000
2.1%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000-82,000
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
70,000-72,000
1.9%
Polymarket 2%polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000-72,000
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
82,000-84,000
1.8%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,000-84,000
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Polymarket
70,000
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
86,000-88,000
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
86,000-88,000
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$665
Trade this on Polymarket
84,000-86,000
0.9%
Polymarket 1%polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
84,000-86,000
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
88,000
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4220 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
88,000
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 76,000-78,000
  • 74,000-76,000
  • 78,000-80,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Bitcoin price on May 3?". 76,000-78,000 last traded at 41.2%. Next is 74,000-76,000 at 27.6%. $35K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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