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What the markets expect
78,000-80,000 26.5%
Next is 80,000-82,000 at 22.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
78,000-80,00026.5%26.5%22¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)78,000-80,00026.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
78,000-80,000
26.5%
26.5%
22¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
78,000-80,000
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 78,000-80,000
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $52
80,000-82,00022.5%22.5%19¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed26¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $385 (3.85x)80,000-82,00022.5%Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
80,000-82,000
22.5%
22.5%
19¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
26¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
80,000-82,000
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 80,000-82,000
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $420
76,00019.7%19.7%8.1¢ bid, 31.3¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed31.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $319 (3.19x)76,00019.7%Polymarket 19.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
76,000
19.7%
19.7%
8.1¢ bid, 31.3¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
31.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $319 (3.19x)
76,000
19.7%
Polymarket 19.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $319 (3.19x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 76,000
- Last price
- 19.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 31.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $319 (3.19x)
76,000-78,00019.1%19.1%15.3¢ bid, 22.9¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed22.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $437 (4.37x)76,000-78,00019.1%Polymarket 19.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 22.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $437 (4.37x)
76,000-78,000
19.1%
19.1%
15.3¢ bid, 22.9¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
22.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $437 (4.37x)
76,000-78,000
19.1%
Polymarket 19.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 22.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $437 (4.37x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 76,000-78,000
- Last price
- 19.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 22.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 15.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $437 (4.37x)
- Volume
- $988
82,000-84,00015.5%15.5%12¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)82,000-84,00015.5%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
82,000-84,000
15.5%
15.5%
12¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
82,000-84,000
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 82,000-84,000
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $189
80,000 to 84,999.9915.4%Not listed15.4%15.1¢ bid, 15.4¢ askpolled, 1 h ago15.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $649 (6.49x)80,000 to 84,999.9915.4%Kalshi 15.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $649 (6.49x)
80,000 to 84,999.99
15.4%
Not listed
15.4%
15.1¢ bid, 15.4¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
15.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $649 (6.49x)
80,000 to 84,999.99
15.4%
Kalshi 15.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $649 (6.49x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 80,000 to 84,999.99
- Last price
- 15.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 15.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 15.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $649 (6.49x)
- Volume
- $3.1M
75,000 to 79,999.9915.3%Not listed15.3%15¢ bid, 15.4¢ askpolled, 1 h ago15.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $649 (6.49x)75,000 to 79,999.9915.3%Kalshi 15.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $649 (6.49x)
75,000 to 79,999.99
15.3%
Not listed
15.3%
15¢ bid, 15.4¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
15.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $649 (6.49x)
75,000 to 79,999.99
15.3%
Kalshi 15.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $649 (6.49x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 75,000 to 79,999.99
- Last price
- 15.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 15.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $649 (6.49x)
- Volume
- $3.2M
85,000 to 89,999.9911.6%Not listed11.6%11.5¢ bid, 11.6¢ askpolled, 1 h ago11.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $862 (8.62x)85,000 to 89,999.9911.6%Kalshi 11.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
85,000 to 89,999.99
11.6%
Not listed
11.6%
11.5¢ bid, 11.6¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
11.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $862 (8.62x)
85,000 to 89,999.99
11.6%
Kalshi 11.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 85,000 to 89,999.99
- Last price
- 11.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 11.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $862 (8.62x)
- Volume
- $2.4M
70,000 to 74,999.999.5%Not listed9.5%9.5¢ bid, 9.6¢ askpolled, 1 h ago9.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)70,000 to 74,999.999.5%Kalshi 9.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
70,000 to 74,999.99
9.5%
Not listed
9.5%
9.5¢ bid, 9.6¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
9.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
70,000 to 74,999.99
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 70,000 to 74,999.99
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,042 (10.4x)
- Volume
- $2.5M
90,000 to 94,999.999.1%Not listed9.1%9.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ askpolled, 1 h ago9.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)90,000 to 94,999.999.1%Kalshi 9.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
90,000 to 94,999.99
9.1%
Not listed
9.1%
9.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
9.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
90,000 to 94,999.99
9.1%
Kalshi 9.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 90,000 to 94,999.99
- Last price
- 9.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,087 (10.9x)
- Volume
- $1.5M
Show 29 more outcomesHide 29 outcomes
95,000 to 99,999.996.9%Not listed6.9%6.6¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 1 h ago6.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)95,000 to 99,999.996.9%Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
95,000 to 99,999.99
6.9%
Not listed
6.9%
6.6¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
6.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
95,000 to 99,999.99
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 95,000 to 99,999.99
- Last price
- 6.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $916K
65,000 to 69,999.995.6%Not listed5.6%5.5¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 1 h ago5.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)65,000 to 69,999.995.6%Kalshi 5.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
65,000 to 69,999.99
5.6%
Not listed
5.6%
5.5¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
5.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
65,000 to 69,999.99
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 65,000 to 69,999.99
- Last price
- 5.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
- Volume
- $2.6M
84,000-86,0005.5%5.5%1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)84,000-86,0005.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
84,000-86,000
5.5%
5.5%
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
84,000-86,000
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 84,000-86,000
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
100,000 to 104,999.994.6%Not listed4.6%4.5¢ bid, 4.6¢ askpolled, 1 h ago4.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)100,000 to 104,999.994.6%Kalshi 4.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
100,000 to 104,999.99
4.6%
Not listed
4.6%
4.5¢ bid, 4.6¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
4.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
100,000 to 104,999.99
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 100,000 to 104,999.99
- Last price
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,174 (21.7x)
- Volume
- $1.0M
60,000 to 64,999.993.2%Not listed3.2%3.2¢ bid, 3.3¢ askpolled, 1 h ago3.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)60,000 to 64,999.993.2%Kalshi 3.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
60,000 to 64,999.99
3.2%
Not listed
3.2%
3.2¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
3.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
60,000 to 64,999.99
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 60,000 to 64,999.99
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,030 (30.3x)
- Volume
- $2.5M
105,000 to 109,999.993%Not listed3%3¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 1 h ago3.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)105,000 to 109,999.993%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
105,000 to 109,999.99
3%
Not listed
3%
3¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
3.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
105,000 to 109,999.99
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 105,000 to 109,999.99
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $709K
86,000-88,0002.7%2.7%1¢ bid, 4.3¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed4.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)86,000-88,0002.7%Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
86,000-88,000
2.7%
2.7%
1¢ bid, 4.3¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
4.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
86,000-88,000
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 86,000-88,000
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,326 (23.3x)
55,000 to 59,999.992.2%Not listed2.2%2.1¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 1 h ago2.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)55,000 to 59,999.992.2%Kalshi 2.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
55,000 to 59,999.99
2.2%
Not listed
2.2%
2.1¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
2.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
55,000 to 59,999.99
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 55,000 to 59,999.99
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $2.4M
88,000-90,0002%2%1¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed2.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)88,000-90,0002%Polymarket 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
88,000-90,000
2%
2%
1¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
2.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
88,000-90,000
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 88,000-90,000
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
90,000-92,0001.9%1.9%1¢ bid, 2.8¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed2.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)90,000-92,0001.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
90,000-92,000
1.9%
1.9%
1¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
2.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
90,000-92,000
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 90,000-92,000
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
92,000-94,0001.8%1.8%1¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)92,000-94,0001.8%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
92,000-94,000
1.8%
1.8%
1¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
92,000-94,000
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 92,000-94,000
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
94,0001.6%1.6%1¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 1 h agoNot listed2.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)94,0001.6%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
94,000
1.6%
1.6%
1¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
Not listed
2.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
94,000
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 94,000
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
50,000 to 54,999.991.5%Not listed1.5%1.4¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago1.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)50,000 to 54,999.991.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
50,000 to 54,999.99
1.5%
Not listed
1.5%
1.4¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
1.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
50,000 to 54,999.99
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 50,000 to 54,999.99
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $2.6M
45,000 to 49,999.991.3%Not listed1.3%1.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 1 h ago1.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)45,000 to 49,999.991.3%Kalshi 1.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
45,000 to 49,999.99
1.3%
Not listed
1.3%
1.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
1.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
45,000 to 49,999.99
1.3%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 45,000 to 49,999.99
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $2.7M
110,000 to 114,999.991.3%Not listed1.3%1.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 1 h ago1.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)110,000 to 114,999.991.3%Kalshi 1.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
110,000 to 114,999.99
1.3%
Not listed
1.3%
1.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
1.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
110,000 to 114,999.99
1.3%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 110,000 to 114,999.99
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $676K
115,000 to 119,999.991.3%Not listed1.3%1.3¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 1 h ago1.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)115,000 to 119,999.991.3%Kalshi 1.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
115,000 to 119,999.99
1.3%
Not listed
1.3%
1.3¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
1.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
115,000 to 119,999.99
1.3%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 115,000 to 119,999.99
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $595K
40,000 to 44,999.990.8%Not listed0.8%0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $12,500 (125x)40,000 to 44,999.990.8%Kalshi 0.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
40,000 to 44,999.99
0.8%
Not listed
0.8%
0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
40,000 to 44,999.99
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 40,000 to 44,999.99
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $1.9M
120,000 to 124,999.990.8%Not listed0.8%0.8¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $11,111 (111x)120,000 to 124,999.990.8%Kalshi 0.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
120,000 to 124,999.99
0.8%
Not listed
0.8%
0.8¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
120,000 to 124,999.99
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 120,000 to 124,999.99
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $707K
150,000 or above0.7%Not listed0.7%0.6¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $14,286 (143x)150,000 or above0.7%Kalshi 0.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
150,000 or above
0.7%
Not listed
0.7%
0.6¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
150,000 or above
0.7%
Kalshi 0.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 150,000 or above
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $2.2M
35,000 to 39,999.990.6%Not listed0.6%0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $16,667 (167x)35,000 to 39,999.990.6%Kalshi 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
35,000 to 39,999.99
0.6%
Not listed
0.6%
0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
35,000 to 39,999.99
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 35,000 to 39,999.99
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $1.8M
135,000 to 139,999.990.6%Not listed0.6%0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $16,667 (167x)135,000 to 139,999.990.6%Kalshi 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
135,000 to 139,999.99
0.6%
Not listed
0.6%
0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
135,000 to 139,999.99
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 135,000 to 139,999.99
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $598K
125,000 to 129,999.990.5%Not listed0.5%0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $16,667 (167x)125,000 to 129,999.990.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
125,000 to 129,999.99
0.5%
Not listed
0.5%
0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
125,000 to 129,999.99
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 125,000 to 129,999.99
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $630K
19,999.99 or below0.4%Not listed0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)19,999.99 or below0.4%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
19,999.99 or below
0.4%
Not listed
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
19,999.99 or below
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 19,999.99 or below
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $868K
30,000 to 34,999.990.4%Not listed0.4%0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $20,000 (200x)30,000 to 34,999.990.4%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
30,000 to 34,999.99
0.4%
Not listed
0.4%
0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
30,000 to 34,999.99
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 30,000 to 34,999.99
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $1.1M
130,000 to 134,999.990.4%Not listed0.4%0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $20,000 (200x)130,000 to 134,999.990.4%Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
130,000 to 134,999.99
0.4%
Not listed
0.4%
0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
130,000 to 134,999.99
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 130,000 to 134,999.99
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $590K
20,000 to 24,999.990.3%Not listed0.3%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)20,000 to 24,999.990.3%Kalshi 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
20,000 to 24,999.99
0.3%
Not listed
0.3%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
20,000 to 24,999.99
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 20,000 to 24,999.99
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $1.0M
25,000 to 29,999.990.3%Not listed0.3%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)25,000 to 29,999.990.3%Kalshi 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
25,000 to 29,999.99
0.3%
Not listed
0.3%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
25,000 to 29,999.99
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 25,000 to 29,999.99
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $844K
140,000 to 144,999.990.3%Not listed0.3%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $25,000 (250x)140,000 to 144,999.990.3%Kalshi 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
140,000 to 144,999.99
0.3%
Not listed
0.3%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
140,000 to 144,999.99
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 140,000 to 144,999.99
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $638K
145,000 to 149,999.990.3%Not listed0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 1 h ago0.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $33,333 (333x)145,000 to 149,999.990.3%Kalshi 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
145,000 to 149,999.99
0.3%
Not listed
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 1 h ago
0.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
145,000 to 149,999.99
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 145,000 to 149,999.99
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $728K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 78,000-80,000
- 80,000-82,000
- 76,000
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 78,000-80,000 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Bitcoin price on October 28?". 78,000-80,000 leads at 26.5%. Next is 80,000-82,000 at 22.5%. $43.0M has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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