The Prediction Markets

BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel

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What the markets expect

BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel 83.5%

Next is BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel at 77.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
77.5%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel Set 1 Winner
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel Set 2 Winner
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 27s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
10¢
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 27s ago
Polymarket
Contract
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 27s ago
Polymarket
Contract
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 23.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$86
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 27s ago
Polymarket
Contract
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 21.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$338
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 27s ago
Polymarket
Contract
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 27s ago
Polymarket
Contract
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel Match O/U 22.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$287
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Adrian Mannarino (-1.5) vs Toby Samuel (+1.5)
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Toby Samuel (-1.5) vs Adrian Mannarino (+1.5)
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
  • BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
  • BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel". BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel leads at 83.5%. Next is BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel at 77.5%. $74K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Mannarino and Toby Samuel in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for November 8, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Toby Samuel. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Adrian Mannarino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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