The Prediction Markets

Buse vs Medvedev

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$353K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 99.5%

Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 70%. The venues differ most on Buse (Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 31%), a 8.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$130
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 23.5
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 21.5
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniil Medvedev
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniil Medvedev
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$115K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 22.5
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Buse
28.8%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 31%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ignacio Buse
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$173K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 Winner
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Game Spread +/-5.5
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 11, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 17, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Buse vs Medvedev". Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 leads at 99.5%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 70%. $353K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets