The Prediction Markets

Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5 62.5%

Next is Cassone at 58.6%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
25¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Cassone
58.6%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 59%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy Cassone
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 Winner
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Match O/U 21.5
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Game Spread +/-2.5
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
2¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 5 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Match O/U 22.5
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Match O/U 23.5
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Stefan Kozlov
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stefan Kozlov
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$613
Trade this on Kalshi
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Murphy Cassone (-1.5) vs Stefan Kozlov (+1.5)
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Stefan Kozlov (-1.5) vs Murphy Cassone (+1.5)
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 11, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2026, 4:10 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5
  • Cassone
  • Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov". Charlottesville: Murphy Cassone vs Stefan Kozlov Set 1 O/U 10.5 leads at 62.5%. Next is Cassone at 58.6%. $3K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Murphy Cassone and Stefan Kozlov in the Charlottesville, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Murphy Cassone' if Murphy Cassone advances against Stefan Kozlov. This market will resolve to 'Stefan Kozlov' if Stefan Kozlov advances against Murphy Cassone. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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