The Prediction Markets

Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November

Closes
Dec 8, 2026, in 33 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

Paul George 88%

Next is Pascal Siakam at 11%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Paul George
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul George
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Pascal Siakam
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pascal Siakam
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Trae Young
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trae Young
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyrese Haliburton
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyrese Haliburton
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyrese Maxey
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyrese Maxey
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Kalshi
Payton Pritchard
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Payton Pritchard
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Rollins
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Rollins
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Scottie Barnes
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scottie Barnes
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
Tre Jones
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tre Jones
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyler Herro
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Herro
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 50 more outcomes
VJ Edgecombe
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
VJ Edgecombe
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Kalshi
Jayson Tatum
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jayson Tatum
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$328
Trade this on Kalshi
AJ Dybantsa
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
AJ Dybantsa
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Sarr
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Sarr
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Nembhard
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Nembhard
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Wiggins
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Wiggins
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthony Black
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Black
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthony Davis
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Davis
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bam Adebayo
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bam Adebayo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon Miller
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Miller
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cade Cunningham
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cade Cunningham
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Caleb Wilson
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Wilson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
CJ McCollum
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
CJ McCollum
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Coby White
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coby White
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Derrick White
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Derrick White
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Desmond Bane
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Desmond Bane
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Donovan Mitchell
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donovan Mitchell
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dyson Daniels
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dyson Daniels
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Evan Mobley
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Evan Mobley
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Franz Wagner
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franz Wagner
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Giannis Antetokounmpo
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Grayson Allen
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grayson Allen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Immanuel Quickley
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Immanuel Quickley
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivica Zubac
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivica Zubac
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jalen Brunson
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Brunson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jalen Duren
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Duren
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jalen Johnson
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Johnson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jalen Suggs
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Suggs
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
James Harden
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Harden
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jarrett Allen
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jarrett Allen
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaylen Brown
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaylen Brown
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joel Embiid
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joel Embiid
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Giddey
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Giddey
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Julius Randle
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julius Randle
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Karl-Anthony Towns
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karl-Anthony Towns
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kawhi Leonard
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kawhi Leonard
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kon Knueppel
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kon Knueppel
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kyshawn George
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyshawn George
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
LeBron James
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
LeBron James
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Matas Buzelis
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matas Buzelis
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Porter Jr.
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Porter Jr.
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mikal Bridges
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mikal Bridges
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nikola Vučević
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nikola Vučević
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Norman Powell
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norman Powell
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
OG Anunoby
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
OG Anunoby
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Onyeka Okongwu
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Onyeka Okongwu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Paolo Banchero
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paolo Banchero
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
RJ Barrett
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
RJ Barrett
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paul George
  • Pascal Siakam
  • Trae Young

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Eastern Conference Player of the Month in October/November". Paul George leads at 88%. Next is Pascal Siakam at 11%. $3K has traded across 60 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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