The Prediction Markets

Ethereum above ___ on October 27?

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$8K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

2,000 99.1%

Next is 1,900 at 99%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
2,000
99.1%
Polymarket 99.1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,000
Last price
99.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
98.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket
1,900
99%
Polymarket 99%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,900
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
98.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
2,100
97.2%
Polymarket 97.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 98.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,100
Last price
97.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.1¢
Sell Yes
96.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,200
92.7%
Polymarket 92.7%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 93.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,200
Last price
92.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.3¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,300
78.5%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,300
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$28
Trade this on Polymarket
2,400
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,400
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
2,500
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,500
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
2,600
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,600
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Polymarket
2,700
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,700
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
2,800
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,800
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
2,900
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,900
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2,000
  • 1,900
  • 2,100

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ethereum above ___ on October 27?". 2,000 leads at 99.1%. Next is 1,900 at 99%. $8K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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