The Prediction Markets

Ethereum price on May 1?

Closed
May 1, 2026
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 175 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
2,200-2,300
78.5%
Polymarket 81.5%(78.5% fair)polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,200-2,300
Last price
81.5%
Fair, margin removed
78.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,300-2,400
13%
Polymarket 13.5%(13% fair)polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,300-2,400
Last price
13.5%
Fair, margin removed
13%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Polymarket
2,100-2,200
4.8%
Polymarket 5%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,100-2,200
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,000-2,100
1.7%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,000-2,100
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Polymarket
2,400-2,500
1.5%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,400-2,500
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$753
Trade this on Polymarket
1,900
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,900
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
1,900-2,000
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,900-2,000
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,500-2,600
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,500-2,600
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,600-2,700
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,600-2,700
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Polymarket
2,700-2,800
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,700-2,800
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,800
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4222 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,800
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2,200-2,300
  • 2,300-2,400
  • 2,100-2,200

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Ethereum price on May 1?". 2,200-2,300 last traded at 78.5%. Next is 2,300-2,400 at 13%. $28K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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