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What the markets expect
2,300-2,400 47.5%
Next is 2,400-2,500 at 35%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
2,300-2,40047.5%47.5%45¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)2,300-2,40047.5%Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
2,300-2,400
47.5%
47.5%
45¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
2,300-2,400
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,300-2,400
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $2K
2,400-2,50035%35%33¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)2,400-2,50035%Polymarket 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
2,400-2,500
35%
35%
33¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
37¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
2,400-2,500
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,400-2,500
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $206
2,250 to 2,499.9917.9%Not listed17.9%17.8¢ bid, 17.9¢ askpolled, 40s ago17.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $559 (5.59x)2,250 to 2,499.9917.9%Kalshi 17.9%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 17.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $559 (5.59x)
2,250 to 2,499.99
17.9%
Not listed
17.9%
17.8¢ bid, 17.9¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
17.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $559 (5.59x)
2,250 to 2,499.99
17.9%
Kalshi 17.9%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 17.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $559 (5.59x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2,250 to 2,499.99
- Last price
- 17.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 17.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $559 (5.59x)
- Volume
- $1.2M
2,500 to 2,749.9916.4%Not listed16.4%16.1¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 40s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)2,500 to 2,749.9916.4%Kalshi 16.4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
2,500 to 2,749.99
16.4%
Not listed
16.4%
16.1¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
2,500 to 2,749.99
16.4%
Kalshi 16.4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2,500 to 2,749.99
- Last price
- 16.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 16.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $1.2M
2,000 to 2,249.9915.7%Not listed15.7%15.6¢ bid, 15.7¢ askpolled, 40s ago15.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $637 (6.37x)2,000 to 2,249.9915.7%Kalshi 15.7%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 15.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $637 (6.37x)
2,000 to 2,249.99
15.7%
Not listed
15.7%
15.6¢ bid, 15.7¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
15.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $637 (6.37x)
2,000 to 2,249.99
15.7%
Kalshi 15.7%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 15.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $637 (6.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2,000 to 2,249.99
- Last price
- 15.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 15.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $637 (6.37x)
- Volume
- $1.3M
2,750 to 2,999.9912%Not listed12%12¢ bid, 12.2¢ askpolled, 40s ago12.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $820 (8.20x)2,750 to 2,999.9912%Kalshi 12%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
2,750 to 2,999.99
12%
Not listed
12%
12¢ bid, 12.2¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
12.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $820 (8.20x)
2,750 to 2,999.99
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 2,750 to 2,999.99
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $820 (8.20x)
- Volume
- $1.1M
2,200-2,3008.8%8.8%7.3¢ bid, 10.2¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed10.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $980 (9.80x)2,200-2,3008.8%Polymarket 8.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
2,200-2,300
8.8%
8.8%
7.3¢ bid, 10.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
10.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $980 (9.80x)
2,200-2,300
8.8%
Polymarket 8.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,200-2,300
- Last price
- 8.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $980 (9.80x)
- Volume
- $2K
3,000 to 3,249.998.5%Not listed8.5%8.4¢ bid, 8.5¢ askpolled, 40s ago8.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)3,000 to 3,249.998.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
3,000 to 3,249.99
8.5%
Not listed
8.5%
8.4¢ bid, 8.5¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
8.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
3,000 to 3,249.99
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3,000 to 3,249.99
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,176 (11.8x)
- Volume
- $1.1M
1,750 to 1,999.997%Not listed7%7¢ bid, 7.1¢ askpolled, 40s ago7.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)1,750 to 1,999.997%Kalshi 7%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
1,750 to 1,999.99
7%
Not listed
7%
7¢ bid, 7.1¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
7.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
1,750 to 1,999.99
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1,750 to 1,999.99
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $1.2M
2,500-2,6003.8%3.8%1.9¢ bid, 5.6¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed5.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)2,500-2,6003.8%Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
2,500-2,600
3.8%
3.8%
1.9¢ bid, 5.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
5.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
2,500-2,600
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,500-2,600
- Last price
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,786 (17.9x)
Show 19 more outcomesHide 19 outcomes
1,500 to 1,749.993.5%Not listed3.5%3.4¢ bid, 3.5¢ askpolled, 40s ago3.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)1,500 to 1,749.993.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
1,500 to 1,749.99
3.5%
Not listed
3.5%
3.4¢ bid, 3.5¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
3.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
1,500 to 1,749.99
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1,500 to 1,749.99
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,857 (28.6x)
- Volume
- $1.0M
5,000 or above3.3%Not listed3.3%3.2¢ bid, 3.3¢ askpolled, 40s ago3.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)5,000 or above3.3%Kalshi 3.3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
5,000 or above
3.3%
Not listed
3.3%
3.2¢ bid, 3.3¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
3.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
5,000 or above
3.3%
Kalshi 3.3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,000 or above
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,030 (30.3x)
- Volume
- $865K
3,250 to 3,499.993%Not listed3%2.9¢ bid, 3¢ askpolled, 40s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)3,250 to 3,499.993%Kalshi 3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
3,250 to 3,499.99
3%
Not listed
3%
2.9¢ bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
3,250 to 3,499.99
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3,250 to 3,499.99
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $120K
3,750 to 3,999.993%Not listed3%3¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 40s ago3.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)3,750 to 3,999.993%Kalshi 3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
3,750 to 3,999.99
3%
Not listed
3%
3¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
3.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
3,750 to 3,999.99
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3,750 to 3,999.99
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $52K
3,500 to 3,749.992.2%Not listed2.2%2.1¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 40s ago2.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)3,500 to 3,749.992.2%Kalshi 2.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
3,500 to 3,749.99
2.2%
Not listed
2.2%
2.1¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
2.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
3,500 to 3,749.99
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 3,500 to 3,749.99
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $70K
999.99 or below2.2%Not listed2.2%2.2¢ bid, 2.3¢ askpolled, 40s ago2.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)999.99 or below2.2%Kalshi 2.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
999.99 or below
2.2%
Not listed
2.2%
2.2¢ bid, 2.3¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
2.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
999.99 or below
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 999.99 or below
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,348 (43.5x)
- Volume
- $999K
1,250 to 1,499.992%Not listed2%1.9¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 40s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)1,250 to 1,499.992%Kalshi 2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
1,250 to 1,499.99
2%
Not listed
2%
1.9¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
1,250 to 1,499.99
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1,250 to 1,499.99
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1.0M
2,600-2,7001.7%1.7%1¢ bid, 2.4¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed2.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)2,600-2,7001.7%Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
2,600-2,700
1.7%
1.7%
1¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
2.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
2,600-2,700
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,600-2,700
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,167 (41.7x)
2,100-2,2001.6%1.6%0.1¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed3.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)2,100-2,2001.6%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
2,100-2,200
1.6%
1.6%
0.1¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
3.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
2,100-2,200
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,100-2,200
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $420
2,000-2,1001.5%1.5%0.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed2.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)2,000-2,1001.5%Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2,000-2,100
1.5%
1.5%
0.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
2.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
2,000-2,100
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,000-2,100
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $10
2,700-2,8001.5%1.5%0.1¢ bid, 2.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed2.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)2,700-2,8001.5%Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
2,700-2,800
1.5%
1.5%
0.1¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
2.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
2,700-2,800
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,700-2,800
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
- Volume
- $370
2,800-2,9001.4%1.4%0.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed2.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)2,800-2,9001.4%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
2,800-2,900
1.4%
1.4%
0.1¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
2.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
2,800-2,900
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,800-2,900
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,704 (37.0x)
- Volume
- $375
1,000 to 1,249.991.3%Not listed1.3%1.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ askpolled, 40s ago1.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)1,000 to 1,249.991.3%Kalshi 1.3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
1,000 to 1,249.99
1.3%
Not listed
1.3%
1.2¢ bid, 1.3¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
1.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
1,000 to 1,249.99
1.3%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 1,000 to 1,249.99
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,692 (76.9x)
- Volume
- $955K
4,000 to 4,249.990.8%Not listed0.8%0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 40s ago0.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $12,500 (125x)4,000 to 4,249.990.8%Kalshi 0.8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
4,000 to 4,249.99
0.8%
Not listed
0.8%
0.7¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
0.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
4,000 to 4,249.99
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,000 to 4,249.99
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $52K
4,500 to 4,749.990.6%Not listed0.6%0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 40s ago0.6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $16,667 (167x)4,500 to 4,749.990.6%Kalshi 0.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
4,500 to 4,749.99
0.6%
Not listed
0.6%
0.5¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
0.6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
4,500 to 4,749.99
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,500 to 4,749.99
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $51K
4,250 to 4,499.990.5%Not listed0.5%0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 40s ago0.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $20,000 (200x)4,250 to 4,499.990.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
4,250 to 4,499.99
0.5%
Not listed
0.5%
0.4¢ bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
0.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
4,250 to 4,499.99
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,250 to 4,499.99
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $33K
2,0000.5%0.5%0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $12,500 (125x)2,0000.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
2,000
0.5%
0.5%
0.1¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $12,500 (125x)
2,000
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,000
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $12,500 (125x)
- Volume
- $420
2,9000.5%0.5%— bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)2,9000.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
2,900
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
2,900
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2,900
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $1K
4,750 to 4,999.990.2%Not listed0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 40s ago0.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $50,000 (500x)4,750 to 4,999.990.2%Kalshi 0.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
4,750 to 4,999.99
0.2%
Not listed
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 40s ago
0.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
4,750 to 4,999.99
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,750 to 4,999.99
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $56K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 2,300-2,400
- 2,400-2,500
- 2,250 to 2,499.99
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 2,300-2,400 for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Ethereum price on October 24?". 2,300-2,400 leads at 47.5%. Next is 2,400-2,500 at 35%. $12.3M has traded across 29 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 24, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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