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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 71.5%
Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 61%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds71.5%71.5%50¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed93¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $108 (1.08x)O/U 0.5 Rounds71.5%Polymarket 71.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
71.5%
71.5%
50¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
93¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 71.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds61%61%50¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)O/U 1.5 Rounds61%Polymarket 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
61%
61%
50¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
61%
Polymarket 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds50.5%50.5%49¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed52¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $192 (1.92x)O/U 2.5 Rounds50.5%Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
50.5%
50.5%
49¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
52¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches47.5%47.5%47¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches47.5%Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches
47.5%
47.5%
47¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $38K
Fight won by KO/TKO?45%45%41¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Fight won by KO/TKO?45%Polymarket 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
45%
45%
41¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
Ends before Round 3?44%44%42¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Ends before Round 3?44%Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Ends before Round 3?
44%
44%
42¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Ends before Round 3?
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
Fight to Go the Distance?44%44%42¢ bid, 46¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed46¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $217 (2.17x)Fight to Go the Distance?44%Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
44%
44%
42¢ bid, 46¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
46¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 46¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $217 (2.17x)
Decision or Draw43.5%43.5%37¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Decision or Draw43.5%Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Decision or Draw
43.5%
43.5%
37¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Decision or Draw
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 43.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Fight won by decision?42.5%42.5%37¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Fight won by decision?42.5%Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by decision?
42.5%
42.5%
37¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by decision?
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 42.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Sanches to win by KO/TKO?33%33%29¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed37¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Sanches to win by KO/TKO?33%Polymarket 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Sanches to win by KO/TKO?
33%
33%
29¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
37¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Sanches to win by KO/TKO?
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sanches to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Samuel Sanches by KO/TKO/DQ32%Not listed32%32¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 4 min ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Samuel Sanches by KO/TKO/DQ32%Kalshi 32%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Samuel Sanches by KO/TKO/DQ
32%
Not listed
32%
32¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Samuel Sanches by KO/TKO/DQ
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Samuel Sanches by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $488
Sanches in Round 130%30%10¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Sanches in Round 130%Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 1
30%
30%
10¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 1
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sanches in Round 1
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Elder to win by KO/TKO?29%29%10¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Elder to win by KO/TKO?29%Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Elder to win by KO/TKO?
29%
29%
10¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Elder to win by KO/TKO?
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elder to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Sanches in Round 229%29%8¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Sanches in Round 229%Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 2
29%
29%
8¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 2
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sanches in Round 2
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Fight won by submission?27.5%27.5%7¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Fight won by submission?27.5%Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by submission?
27.5%
27.5%
7¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Fight won by submission?
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
Elder in Round 127%27%4¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Elder in Round 127%Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 1
27%
27%
4¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 1
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elder in Round 1
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 226.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Elder in Round 226.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 2
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elder in Round 2
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 326.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Elder in Round 326.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 3
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Elder in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elder in Round 3
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 326.5%26.5%3¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed50¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)Sanches in Round 326.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 3
26.5%
26.5%
3¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
50¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Sanches in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sanches in Round 3
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
Evan Elder by Decision26%Not listed26%25¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 4 min ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Evan Elder by Decision26%Kalshi 26%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Evan Elder by Decision
26%
Not listed
26%
25¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Evan Elder by Decision
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Evan Elder by Decision
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $668
Ends before Round 2?23%23%21¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Ends before Round 2?23%Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Ends before Round 2?
23%
23%
21¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Ends before Round 2?
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
Samuel Sanches by Decision17%Not listed17%16¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 4 min ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Samuel Sanches by Decision17%Kalshi 17%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Samuel Sanches by Decision
17%
Not listed
17%
16¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Samuel Sanches by Decision
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Samuel Sanches by Decision
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $71
Evan Elder by KO/TKO/DQ12%Not listed12%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 4 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Evan Elder by KO/TKO/DQ12%Kalshi 12%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Evan Elder by KO/TKO/DQ
12%
Not listed
12%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Evan Elder by KO/TKO/DQ
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Evan Elder by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $357
Evan Elder by Submission8%Not listed8%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 4 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Evan Elder by Submission8%Kalshi 8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Evan Elder by Submission
8%
Not listed
8%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Evan Elder by Submission
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Evan Elder by Submission
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $122
Samuel Sanches by Submission3%Not listed3%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Samuel Sanches by Submission3%Kalshi 3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Samuel Sanches by Submission
3%
Not listed
3%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Samuel Sanches by Submission
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Samuel Sanches by Submission
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $712
Draw/No Contest2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Draw/No Contest2%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/No Contest
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Paramount+
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 71.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 61%. $41K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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