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What the markets expect
Nodirbek Abdusattorov 59%
Next is Arjun Erigaisi at 47.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Nodirbek Abdusattorov59%59%— bid, 64¢ askpolled, 5 min ago64¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Nodirbek Abdusattorov59%Kalshi 59%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
59%
59%
— bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
64¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $600
Arjun Erigaisi47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Arjun Erigaisi47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Arjun Erigaisi
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Arjun Erigaisi
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arjun Erigaisi
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Ding Liren47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Ding Liren47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Ding Liren
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Ding Liren
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ding Liren
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Fabiano Caruana47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Fabiano Caruana47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Fabiano Caruana
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Fabiano Caruana
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabiano Caruana
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Hans Moke Niemann47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Hans Moke Niemann47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Hans Moke Niemann
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Hans Moke Niemann
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hans Moke Niemann
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Ian Nepomniachtchi47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Ian Nepomniachtchi47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Ian Nepomniachtchi
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Ian Nepomniachtchi
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ian Nepomniachtchi
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Javokhir Sindarov47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Javokhir Sindarov47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Javokhir Sindarov
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Javokhir Sindarov
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Javokhir Sindarov
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Levon Aronian47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Levon Aronian47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Levon Aronian
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Levon Aronian
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Levon Aronian
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Magnus Carlsen47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Magnus Carlsen47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Magnus Carlsen
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Magnus Carlsen
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Magnus Carlsen
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Maxime Vachier-Lagrave47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Nihal Sarin47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Nihal Sarin47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Nihal Sarin
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Nihal Sarin
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nihal Sarin
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Vladimir Fedoseev47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Vladimir Fedoseev47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Vladimir Fedoseev
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Vladimir Fedoseev
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vladimir Fedoseev
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Wesley So47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Wesley So47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Wesley So
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Wesley So
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wesley So
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Yu Yangyi47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 5 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Yu Yangyi47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Yu Yangyi
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Yu Yangyi
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yu Yangyi
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Vladislav Artemiev47%47%— bid, 94¢ askpolled, 5 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Vladislav Artemiev47%Kalshi 47%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Vladislav Artemiev
47%
47%
— bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Vladislav Artemiev
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vladislav Artemiev
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Bu Xiangzhi46.5%46.5%— bid, 93¢ askpolled, 5 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Bu Xiangzhi46.5%Kalshi 46.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Bu Xiangzhi
46.5%
46.5%
— bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Bu Xiangzhi
46.5%
Kalshi 46.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bu Xiangzhi
- Last price
- 46.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Hikaru Nakamura23%23%2¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 5 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Hikaru Nakamura23%Kalshi 23%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Hikaru Nakamura
23%
23%
2¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Hikaru Nakamura
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hikaru Nakamura
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $405
Alireza Firouzja6.5%6.5%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 5 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Alireza Firouzja6.5%Kalshi 6.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Alireza Firouzja
6.5%
6.5%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Alireza Firouzja
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alireza Firouzja
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Daniil Dubov4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 5 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Daniil Dubov4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Daniil Dubov
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Daniil Dubov
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniil Dubov
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIDE World Top Players
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov
- Arjun Erigaisi
- Ding Liren
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "FIDE Blitz Top Chess Players: #2 Rated in January 2027". Nodirbek Abdusattorov leads at 59%. Next is Arjun Erigaisi at 47.5%. $1K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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