The Prediction Markets

FIDE Blitz Top Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in December 2026

Closes
Jan 7, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Hikaru Nakamura 96.5%

Next is Magnus Carlsen at 96.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Hikaru Nakamura
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hikaru Nakamura
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Magnus Carlsen
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Magnus Carlsen
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alireza Firouzja
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alireza Firouzja
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniil Dubov
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniil Dubov
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Arjun Erigaisi
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arjun Erigaisi
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ian Nepomniachtchi
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Wesley So
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wesley So
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Fabiano Caruana
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fabiano Caruana
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Vladimir Fedoseev
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Fedoseev
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Javokhir Sindarov
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javokhir Sindarov
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Ding Liren
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ding Liren
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Nihal Sarin
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nihal Sarin
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Yu Yangyi
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yu Yangyi
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Bu Xiangzhi
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bu Xiangzhi
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Levon Aronian
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Levon Aronian
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hans Moke Niemann
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hans Moke Niemann
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladislav Artemiev
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladislav Artemiev
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIDE World Top Players

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hikaru Nakamura
  • Magnus Carlsen
  • Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "FIDE Blitz Top Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in December 2026". Hikaru Nakamura leads at 96.5%. Next is Magnus Carlsen at 96.5%. $1K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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