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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Magnus Carlsen 95%
Next is Nodirbek Abdusattorov at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Magnus Carlsen95%95%92¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 1 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Magnus Carlsen95%Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Magnus Carlsen
95%
95%
92¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Magnus Carlsen
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Magnus Carlsen
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov88%88%83¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 1 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Nodirbek Abdusattorov88%Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
88%
88%
83¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Hikaru Nakamura85%85%82¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 1 min ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Hikaru Nakamura85%Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Hikaru Nakamura
85%
85%
82¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Hikaru Nakamura
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hikaru Nakamura
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $200
Alireza Firouzja84%84%82¢ bid, 91¢ askpolled, 1 min ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Alireza Firouzja84%Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Alireza Firouzja
84%
84%
82¢ bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Alireza Firouzja
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alireza Firouzja
- Last price
- 84%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $205
Daniil Dubov71%71%68¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 1 min ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)Daniil Dubov71%Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Daniil Dubov
71%
71%
68¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Daniil Dubov
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniil Dubov
- Last price
- 71%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 68¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $600
Arjun Erigaisi30%30%25¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 1 min ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Arjun Erigaisi30%Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Arjun Erigaisi
30%
30%
25¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Arjun Erigaisi
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arjun Erigaisi
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
Ian Nepomniachtchi23%23%16¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 1 min ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Ian Nepomniachtchi23%Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Ian Nepomniachtchi
23%
23%
16¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Ian Nepomniachtchi
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ian Nepomniachtchi
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $200
Wesley So8%8%3¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Wesley So8%Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Wesley So
8%
8%
3¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Wesley So
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wesley So
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Fabiano Caruana6%6%1¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 min ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Fabiano Caruana6%Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Fabiano Caruana
6%
6%
1¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Fabiano Caruana
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabiano Caruana
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Maxime Vachier-Lagrave4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Ding Liren3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Ding Liren3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Ding Liren
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Ding Liren
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ding Liren
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Javokhir Sindarov3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Javokhir Sindarov3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Javokhir Sindarov
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Javokhir Sindarov
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Javokhir Sindarov
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Vladimir Fedoseev3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Vladimir Fedoseev3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Vladimir Fedoseev
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Vladimir Fedoseev
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vladimir Fedoseev
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Nihal Sarin3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Nihal Sarin3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nihal Sarin
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Nihal Sarin
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nihal Sarin
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Yu Yangyi3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Yu Yangyi3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Yu Yangyi
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Yu Yangyi
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Yu Yangyi
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Bu Xiangzhi2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Bu Xiangzhi2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Bu Xiangzhi
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Bu Xiangzhi
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bu Xiangzhi
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Hans Moke Niemann2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Hans Moke Niemann2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Hans Moke Niemann
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Hans Moke Niemann
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hans Moke Niemann
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Levon Aronian2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Levon Aronian2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Levon Aronian
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Levon Aronian
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Levon Aronian
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Vladislav Artemiev2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Vladislav Artemiev2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Vladislav Artemiev
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Vladislav Artemiev
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vladislav Artemiev
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIDE World Top Players
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Magnus Carlsen
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov
- Hikaru Nakamura
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "FIDE Blitz Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in January 2027". Magnus Carlsen leads at 95%. Next is Nodirbek Abdusattorov at 88%. $1K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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