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What the markets expect
Hikaru Nakamura 99%
Next is Javokhir Sindarov at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Hikaru Nakamura99%99%96¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askHikaru Nakamura99%Kalshi 99%polled, 56s ago
Hikaru Nakamura
99%
99%
96¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Hikaru Nakamura
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hikaru Nakamura
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
- Volume
- $205
Javokhir Sindarov99%99%96¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askJavokhir Sindarov99%Kalshi 99%polled, 56s ago
Javokhir Sindarov
99%
99%
96¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Javokhir Sindarov
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Javokhir Sindarov
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
- Volume
- $205
Magnus Carlsen98%98%96¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askMagnus Carlsen98%Kalshi 98%polled, 56s ago
Magnus Carlsen
98%
98%
96¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Magnus Carlsen
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Magnus Carlsen
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
Fabiano Caruana97%97%94¢ bid, — askpolled, 56s agoNo askFabiano Caruana97%Kalshi 97%polled, 56s ago
Fabiano Caruana
97%
97%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, 56s ago
No ask
Fabiano Caruana
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 56s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabiano Caruana
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
Nodirbek Abdusattorov94.5%94.5%91¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 56s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Nodirbek Abdusattorov94.5%Kalshi 94.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
94.5%
94.5%
91¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
94.5%
Kalshi 94.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov
- Last price
- 94.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Wei Yi92%92%91¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 56s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Wei Yi92%Kalshi 92%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Wei Yi
92%
92%
91¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Wei Yi
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wei Yi
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $410
Wesley So92%92%88¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 56s ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Wesley So92%Kalshi 92%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Wesley So
92%
92%
88¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Wesley So
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wesley So
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 88¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa91%91%85¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 56s ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa91%Kalshi 91%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
91%
91%
85¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
- Last price
- 91%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $200
Vincent Keymer89%89%85¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 56s ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Vincent Keymer89%Kalshi 89%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Vincent Keymer
89%
89%
85¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Vincent Keymer
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vincent Keymer
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
Alireza Firouzja79%79%72¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 56s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Alireza Firouzja79%Kalshi 79%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Alireza Firouzja
79%
79%
72¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Alireza Firouzja
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alireza Firouzja
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $55
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Anish Giri41%41%35¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 56s ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Anish Giri41%Kalshi 41%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Anish Giri
41%
41%
35¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Anish Giri
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anish Giri
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $200
Arjun Erigaisi19%19%11¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 56s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Arjun Erigaisi19%Kalshi 19%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Arjun Erigaisi
19%
19%
11¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Arjun Erigaisi
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arjun Erigaisi
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $45
Jan-Krzysztof Duda5%5%1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 56s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Jan-Krzysztof Duda5%Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
5%
5%
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jan-Krzysztof Duda
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Le Quang Liem5%5%1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 56s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Le Quang Liem5%Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Le Quang Liem
5%
5%
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Le Quang Liem
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Le Quang Liem
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Leinier Domínguez Pérez5%5%1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 56s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Leinier Domínguez Pérez5%Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Leinier Domínguez Pérez
5%
5%
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Leinier Domínguez Pérez
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Leinier Domínguez Pérez
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Viswanathan Anand5%5%1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 56s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Viswanathan Anand5%Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Viswanathan Anand
5%
5%
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Viswanathan Anand
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Viswanathan Anand
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Liren Ding4%4%1¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 56s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Liren Ding4%Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Liren Ding
4%
4%
1¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Liren Ding
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liren Ding
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Hans Moke Niemann3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 56s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Hans Moke Niemann3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Hans Moke Niemann
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Hans Moke Niemann
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hans Moke Niemann
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Gukesh Dommaraju3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 56s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Gukesh Dommaraju3%Kalshi 3%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Gukesh Dommaraju
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Gukesh Dommaraju
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gukesh Dommaraju
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Jorden Van Foreest3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 56s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Jorden Van Foreest3%Kalshi 3%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jorden Van Foreest
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 56s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jorden Van Foreest
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jorden Van Foreest
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIDE World Top Players
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Hikaru Nakamura
- Javokhir Sindarov
- Magnus Carlsen
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in December 2026". Hikaru Nakamura leads at 99%. Next is Javokhir Sindarov at 99%. $1K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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