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What the markets expect
Hikaru Nakamura 98%
Next is Magnus Carlsen at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 55 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Hikaru Nakamura98%98%93¢ bid, — askpolled, 55 min agoNo askHikaru Nakamura98%Kalshi 98%polled, 55 min ago
Hikaru Nakamura
98%
98%
93¢ bid, — ask
polled, 55 min ago
No ask
Hikaru Nakamura
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 55 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hikaru Nakamura
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- Volume
- $25
Magnus Carlsen98%98%58¢ bid, — askpolled, 55 min agoNo askMagnus Carlsen98%Kalshi 98%polled, 55 min ago
Magnus Carlsen
98%
98%
58¢ bid, — ask
polled, 55 min ago
No ask
Magnus Carlsen
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 55 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Magnus Carlsen
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- Volume
- $5
Fabiano Caruana96%96%89¢ bid, — askpolled, 55 min agoNo askFabiano Caruana96%Kalshi 96%polled, 55 min ago
Fabiano Caruana
96%
96%
89¢ bid, — ask
polled, 55 min ago
No ask
Fabiano Caruana
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 55 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabiano Caruana
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 89¢
- Volume
- $10
Javokhir Sindarov60%60%22¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 55 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Javokhir Sindarov60%Kalshi 60%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Javokhir Sindarov
60%
60%
22¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Javokhir Sindarov
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Javokhir Sindarov
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Hans Moke Niemann47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 55 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Hans Moke Niemann47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Hans Moke Niemann
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Hans Moke Niemann
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hans Moke Niemann
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Viswanathan Anand47.5%47.5%— bid, 95¢ askpolled, 55 min ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Viswanathan Anand47.5%Kalshi 47.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Viswanathan Anand
47.5%
47.5%
— bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Viswanathan Anand
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Viswanathan Anand
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
Gukesh Dommaraju47%47%— bid, 94¢ askpolled, 55 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Gukesh Dommaraju47%Kalshi 47%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Gukesh Dommaraju
47%
47%
— bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Gukesh Dommaraju
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gukesh Dommaraju
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Jorden Van Foreest47%47%— bid, 94¢ askpolled, 55 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Jorden Van Foreest47%Kalshi 47%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Jorden Van Foreest
47%
47%
— bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Jorden Van Foreest
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jorden Van Foreest
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Leinier Domínguez Pérez47%47%— bid, 94¢ askpolled, 55 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Leinier Domínguez Pérez47%Kalshi 47%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Leinier Domínguez Pérez
47%
47%
— bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Leinier Domínguez Pérez
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Leinier Domínguez Pérez
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Liren Ding47%47%— bid, 94¢ askpolled, 55 min ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Liren Ding47%Kalshi 47%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Liren Ding
47%
47%
— bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Liren Ding
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liren Ding
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Alireza Firouzja40%40%9¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 55 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Alireza Firouzja40%Kalshi 40%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Alireza Firouzja
40%
40%
9¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Alireza Firouzja
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alireza Firouzja
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $853
Nodirbek Abdusattorov22%22%2¢ bid, 93¢ askpolled, 55 min ago93¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Nodirbek Abdusattorov22%Kalshi 22%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
22%
22%
2¢ bid, 93¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
93¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 93¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $400
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa9%9%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 55 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa9%Kalshi 9%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
9%
9%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $249
Wei Yi7.5%7.5%— bid, 15¢ askpolled, 55 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Wei Yi7.5%Kalshi 7.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Wei Yi
7.5%
7.5%
— bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Wei Yi
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wei Yi
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Wesley So7.5%7.5%— bid, 15¢ askpolled, 55 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Wesley So7.5%Kalshi 7.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Wesley So
7.5%
7.5%
— bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Wesley So
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wesley So
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Anish Giri6%6%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 55 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Anish Giri6%Kalshi 6%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Anish Giri
6%
6%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Anish Giri
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anish Giri
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $47
Vincent Keymer6%6%— bid, 12¢ askpolled, 55 min ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Vincent Keymer6%Kalshi 6%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Vincent Keymer
6%
6%
— bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Vincent Keymer
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vincent Keymer
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Arjun Erigaisi4.5%4.5%— bid, 9¢ askpolled, 55 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Arjun Erigaisi4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Arjun Erigaisi
4.5%
4.5%
— bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Arjun Erigaisi
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arjun Erigaisi
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 55 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Jan-Krzysztof Duda3%Kalshi 3%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jan-Krzysztof Duda
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Le Quang Liem3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 55 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Le Quang Liem3%Kalshi 3%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Le Quang Liem
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 55 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Le Quang Liem
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 55 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Le Quang Liem
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 55 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIDE World Top Players
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Hikaru Nakamura
- Magnus Carlsen
- Fabiano Caruana
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026". Hikaru Nakamura leads at 98%. Next is Magnus Carlsen at 98%. $2K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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