The Prediction Markets

Grenier vs Bax

Starts in 31 minKickoff
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Grenier 75.7%

Next is Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 at 69.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Grenier
75.7%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 22s agoKalshi 76%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hugo Grenier
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$819
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 75¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 76¢.

Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Set 1 Winner
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Hugo Grenier (-1.5) vs Florent Bax (+1.5)
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 22s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Set 2 Winner
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 21.5
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Florent Bax
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florent Bax
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 23.5
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Florent Bax (-1.5) vs Hugo Grenier (+1.5)
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 22, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2026, 11:20 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Grenier
  • Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5
  • Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5

Live prices for Grenier

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Grenier vs Bax". Grenier leads at 75.7%. Next is Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 at 69.5%. $7K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets