The Prediction Markets

Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai

Starts in 1 h 5 minKickoff
Traded
$80K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Henning 55.9%

Next is Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner at 54.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Henning
55.9%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 56%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Philip Henning
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 55¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 56¢.

Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Match O/U 21.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Michele Ribecai
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michele Ribecai
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Match O/U 22.5
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Philip Henning (-1.5) vs Michele Ribecai (+1.5)
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Match O/U 23.5
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Michele Ribecai (-1.5) vs Philip Henning (+1.5)
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 22, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Henning
  • Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner
  • Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner

Live prices for Henning

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai". Henning leads at 55.9%. Next is Hersonissos 3: Philip Henning vs Michele Ribecai Set 1 Winner at 54.5%. $80K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Philip Henning and Michele Ribecai in the Hersonissos 3, originally scheduled for November 15, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Philip Henning' if Philip Henning advances against Michele Ribecai. This market will resolve to 'Michele Ribecai' if Michele Ribecai advances against Philip Henning. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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