The Prediction Markets

How low will BTC get in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$3.3M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
6 h ago
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What the markets expect

82,500 77.1%

Next is 85,000 at 54.7%. The venues differ most on 90,000 (Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 29%), a 5.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 32 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
82,500
77.1%
Polymarket 78.5%live, 6 h agoKalshi 75%live, 6 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,500
Price
78.5%
As of
Live feed, 6 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $82,500.00
Price
75%
As of
Live feed, 6 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

85,000
54.7%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 57%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
85,000
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $85,000.00
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

75,000
47.4%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 50%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
75,000
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$202K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $75,000.00
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

87,500
37.4%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 40%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
87,500
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $87,500.00
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

72,500
31.1%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 33%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,500
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $72,500.00
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

90,000
27%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 29%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $90,000.00
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$153K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

70,000
19.4%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 19%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $70,000.00
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

92,500
18.9%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
92,500
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $92,500.00
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$135K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

67,500
12.6%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
67,500
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $67,500.00
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

95,000
10.7%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
95,000
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $95,000.00
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 7 more outcomes
65,000
8.3%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
65,000
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$120K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $65,000.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

62,500
6.6%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
62,500
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$132K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $62,500.00
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

97,500
5.9%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
97,500
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $97,500.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

60,000
4.9%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
60,000
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$167K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $60,000.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

57,500
3.1%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 6 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
57,500
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$287K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $57,500.00
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 6 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

100,000
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
100,000
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$103K
Trade this on Polymarket
55,000
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
55,000
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 6 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 82,500
  • 85,000
  • 75,000

Live prices for 82,500

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will BTC get in November?". 82,500 leads at 77.1%. Next is 85,000 at 54.7%. $3.3M has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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