The Prediction Markets

How low will ETH get in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$689K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
7 h ago
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What the markets expect

2,500 79.1%

Next is 2,600 at 58.5%. The venues differ most on 2,500 (Polymarket 78.5%, Kalshi 81%), a 2.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
2,500
79.1%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 7 h agoKalshi 81%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,500
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2,500.00
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 7 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

2,600
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,600
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,200
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,200
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,700
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,700
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2,750.00
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2,750.00
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
2,100
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,100
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,800
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,800
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
2,000
19.6%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 7 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,000
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $2,000.00
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 7 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

2,900
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
2,900
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
1,900
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,900
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 19 more outcomes
3,000
11.3%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 7 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,000
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3,000.00
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 7 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

1,800
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,800
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,100
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,100
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $1,750.00
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1,750.00
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3,250.00
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3,250.00
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
1,700
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,700
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
1,600
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,600
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
3,500
2.3%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 7 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
3,500
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3,500.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 7 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

1,500
1.9%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 7 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,500
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1,500.00
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 7 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Above $3,750.00
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3,750.00
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $1,000.00
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1,000.00
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4,000.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4,000.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $1,250.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1,250.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $250.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $250.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $500.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $500.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $750.00
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $750.00
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
1,400
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,400
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
1,300
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
1,300
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $4,250.00
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 7 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4,250.00
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 7 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 7 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2,500
  • 2,600
  • 2,200

Live prices for 2,500

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will ETH get in November?". 2,500 leads at 79.1%. Next is 2,600 at 58.5%. $689K has traded across 29 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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