The Prediction Markets

How low will XRP get in November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 26 days
Traded
$134K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
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What the markets expect

1.4 64.5%

Next is 1.2 at 53%. The venues differ most on 1.2 (Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 56%), a 4.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
1.4
64.5%
Polymarket 64%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 66%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.40
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$830
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.40
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

1.2
53%
Polymarket 52%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 56%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.20
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1.20
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Above $1.50
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.50
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$610
Trade this on Kalshi
Below $1.10
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1.10
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.6
19.3%
Polymarket 19%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.60
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.60
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Above $1.70
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.70
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $1.90
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.90
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
1
9%
Polymarket 8%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.00
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$583
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $1.00
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

1.8
7.6%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.80
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $1.80
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Below $0.90
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.90
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
2
3.7%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.00
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.00
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

0.8
2.2%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.80
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.80
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

2.20
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.20
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.80
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.80
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.60
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.60
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.40
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.40
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Below $0.70
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.70
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
0.6
1.2%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.60
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.60
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Resolution sources differ

Do not treat this price difference as directly comparable.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Below $0.50
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below $0.50
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
3.00
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.00
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.40
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.40
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Polymarket
0.20
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.20
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Different bets: these contracts settle on different rules

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (e.g. BRTI); Polymarket on Binance USDT-pair 1-minute candle highs/lows. A brief wick on one source may not appear on the other.
  • Windows differ: Polymarket counts from market creation; Kalshi rungs count from each rung's own start date (e.g. Feb 5, 2026 for some 2026 lows).
  • Kalshi rungs are strict ('Above $99,999.99', 'Below $55,000'); Polymarket rungs are inclusive. They differ only at exactly the level.
  • Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 1.4
  • 1.2
  • Above $1.50

Live prices for 1.4

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "How low will XRP get in November?". 1.4 leads at 64.5%. Next is 1.2 at 53%. $134K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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