The Prediction Markets

Johnson vs Hinojosa Gomez

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Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Johnson 80%

Next is Set Handicap: Sofia Johnson (-1.5) vs Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (+1.5) at 7.6%. The venues differ most on Johnson (Polymarket 97.3%, Kalshi 94%), a 3.3-point gap.

Johnson 80%Set Handicap: Sofia Johnson (-1.5) vs Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (+1.5) 7.6%Set Handicap: Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (-1.5) vs Sofia Johnson (+1.5) 6.5%Jessica Hinojosa Gomez 5.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
JohnsonArb
80%
Polymarket 97.3%(80.1% fair)polled, 48s agoKalshi 94%(79.8% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
W50 Huamantla: Sofia Johnson vs Jessica Hinojosa Gomez
Last price
97.3%
Fair, margin removed
80.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
96.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$973
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sofia Johnson
Last price
94%
Fair, margin removed
79.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 94¢ and selling on Polymarket at 96.3¢ nets 230 bps before fees.

Set Handicap: Sofia Johnson (-1.5) vs Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (+1.5)
7.6%
Polymarket 9.2%(7.5% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 18.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $546 (5.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Sofia Johnson (-1.5) vs Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (+1.5)
Last price
9.2%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$546 (5.46x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Set Handicap: Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (-1.5) vs Sofia Johnson (+1.5)
6.5%
Polymarket 7.9%(6.5% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 15.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $637 (6.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (-1.5) vs Sofia Johnson (+1.5)
Last price
7.9%
Fair, margin removed
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$637 (6.37x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Jessica Hinojosa Gomez
5.9%
Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jessica Hinojosa Gomez
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Johnson on Kalshi at 94¢, sell on Polymarket at 96.3¢ (230 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 12, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: itftennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, ITF, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Johnson
  • Set Handicap: Sofia Johnson (-1.5) vs Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (+1.5)
  • Set Handicap: Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (-1.5) vs Sofia Johnson (+1.5)

Live prices for Johnson

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

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Top of book

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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Johnson vs Hinojosa Gomez". Johnson leads at 80%. Next is Set Handicap: Sofia Johnson (-1.5) vs Jessica Hinojosa Gomez (+1.5) at 7.6%. $24K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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