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What the markets expect
O/U 0.5 Rounds 79.5%
Next is Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid at 75.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
O/U 0.5 Rounds79.5%79.5%75¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed84¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $119 (1.19x)O/U 0.5 Rounds79.5%Polymarket 79.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
79.5%
79.5%
75¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
84¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 79.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid75.5%75.5%75¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed76¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $132 (1.32x)Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid75.5%Polymarket 75.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid
75.5%
75.5%
75¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
76¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid
75.5%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid
- Last price
- 75.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $24K
Fight won by KO/TKO?64%64%59¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed69¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Fight won by KO/TKO?64%Polymarket 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
64%
64%
59¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
69¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Fight won by KO/TKO?
64%
Polymarket 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
Ends before Round 3?59%59%56¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed62¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $161 (1.61x)Ends before Round 3?59%Polymarket 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Ends before Round 3?
59%
59%
56¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
62¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Ends before Round 3?
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ57%Not listed57%55¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 7 min ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ57%Kalshi 57%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ
57%
Not listed
57%
55¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $262
Nakamura to win by KO/TKO?55.5%55.5%52¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed59¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Nakamura to win by KO/TKO?55.5%Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Nakamura to win by KO/TKO?
55.5%
55.5%
52¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
59¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Nakamura to win by KO/TKO?
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nakamura to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 55.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $33
O/U 1.5 Rounds51.5%51.5%50¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed53¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $189 (1.89x)O/U 1.5 Rounds51.5%Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
51.5%
51.5%
50¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
53¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 51.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $110
Ends before Round 2?36.5%36.5%34¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Ends before Round 2?36.5%Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Ends before Round 2?
36.5%
36.5%
34¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Ends before Round 2?
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds34.5%34.5%30¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)O/U 2.5 Rounds34.5%Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
34.5%
34.5%
30¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
Nakamura in Round 131.5%31.5%27¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed36¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Nakamura in Round 131.5%Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Nakamura in Round 1
31.5%
31.5%
27¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
36¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Nakamura in Round 1
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nakamura in Round 1
- Last price
- 31.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Fight to Go the Distance?27.5%27.5%25¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Fight to Go the Distance?27.5%Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
27.5%
27.5%
25¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Decision or Draw26.5%26.5%22¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Decision or Draw26.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Decision or Draw
26.5%
26.5%
22¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Decision or Draw
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Fight won by decision?26.5%26.5%22¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Fight won by decision?26.5%Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Fight won by decision?
26.5%
26.5%
22¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Fight won by decision?
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 26.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Nakamura in Round 219.5%19.5%15¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Nakamura in Round 219.5%Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Nakamura in Round 2
19.5%
19.5%
15¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Nakamura in Round 2
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nakamura in Round 2
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
Keiichiro Nakamura by Decision16%Not listed16%15¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 7 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Keiichiro Nakamura by Decision16%Kalshi 16%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Keiichiro Nakamura by Decision
16%
Not listed
16%
15¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Keiichiro Nakamura by Decision
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Keiichiro Nakamura by Decision
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $59
Ollie Schmid by Decision13%Not listed13%7¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 7 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Ollie Schmid by Decision13%Kalshi 13%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Ollie Schmid by Decision
13%
Not listed
13%
7¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Ollie Schmid by Decision
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ollie Schmid by Decision
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $1
Nakamura in Round 311.5%11.5%7¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Nakamura in Round 311.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Nakamura in Round 3
11.5%
11.5%
7¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Nakamura in Round 3
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nakamura in Round 3
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Fight won by submission?9.5%9.5%5¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Fight won by submission?9.5%Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Fight won by submission?
9.5%
9.5%
5¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Fight won by submission?
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
Ollie Schmid by KO/TKO/DQ9%Not listed9%8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 7 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Ollie Schmid by KO/TKO/DQ9%Kalshi 9%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Ollie Schmid by KO/TKO/DQ
9%
Not listed
9%
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Ollie Schmid by KO/TKO/DQ
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ollie Schmid by KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $627
Schmid to win by KO/TKO?9%9%5¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Schmid to win by KO/TKO?9%Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Schmid to win by KO/TKO?
9%
9%
5¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Schmid to win by KO/TKO?
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Schmid to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Schmid in Round 15%5%1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Schmid in Round 15%Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Schmid in Round 1
5%
5%
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Schmid in Round 1
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Schmid in Round 1
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
Schmid in Round 24.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Schmid in Round 24.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Schmid in Round 2
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Schmid in Round 2
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Schmid in Round 2
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Schmid in Round 34.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Schmid in Round 34.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Schmid in Round 3
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Schmid in Round 3
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Schmid in Round 3
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Keiichiro Nakamura by Submission4%Not listed4%2¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 7 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Keiichiro Nakamura by Submission4%Kalshi 4%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Keiichiro Nakamura by Submission
4%
Not listed
4%
2¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Keiichiro Nakamura by Submission
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Keiichiro Nakamura by Submission
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Ollie Schmid by Submission4%Not listed4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 7 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Ollie Schmid by Submission4%Kalshi 4%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ollie Schmid by Submission
4%
Not listed
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ollie Schmid by Submission
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ollie Schmid by Submission
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $36
Draw/No Contest2%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 7 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Draw/No Contest2%Kalshi 2%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 7 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/No Contest
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 7 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $31
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, Paramount+
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 79.5%. Next is Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid at 75.5%. $25K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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