The Prediction Markets

Las Vegas Grand Prix: Driver Winner

Starts in 7 daysKickoff
Traded
$75K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Max Verstappen 32.5%

Next is Kimi Antonelli at 23.1%. The venues differ most on Lando Norris (Polymarket 12%, Kalshi 14%), a 2.0-point gap.

Max Verstappen 32.5%Kimi Antonelli 23.1%Lando Norris 11.6%George Russell 10.4%Charles Leclerc 4.3%19 others 18.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 19 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Max Verstappen
32.5%
Polymarket 37%(33.5% fair)polled, 19 min agoKalshi 38%(31.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Max Verstappen
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
33.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Max Verstappen
Last price
38%
Fair, margin removed
31.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 37¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 38¢.

Kimi Antonelli
23.1%
Polymarket 26.5%(24% fair)polled, 19 min agoKalshi 27%(22.5% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kimi Antonelli
Last price
26.5%
Fair, margin removed
24%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
22.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 26¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Lando Norris
11.6%
Polymarket 12%(10.8% fair)polled, 19 min agoKalshi 14%(11.7% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lando Norris
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
10.8%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$322
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lando Norris
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

George Russell
10.4%
Polymarket 12.5%(11.3% fair)polled, 19 min agoKalshi 12%(10% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Russell
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.3%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
George Russell
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
10%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.

Charles Leclerc
4.3%
Polymarket 5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Leclerc
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Leclerc
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Lewis Hamilton
3.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lewis Hamilton
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lewis Hamilton
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Oscar Piastri
2.6%
Polymarket 3%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oscar Piastri
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oscar Piastri
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Isack Hadjar
1.6%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isack Hadjar
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Isack Hadjar
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Ryo Hirakawa
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryo Hirakawa
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexander Albon
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Albon
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Albon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Show 14 more outcomes
Arvid Lindblad
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arvid Lindblad
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arvid Lindblad
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Carlos Sainz Jr.
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Sainz Jr.
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos Sainz Jr.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Fernando Alonso
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Alonso
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Alonso
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$147
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Franco Colapinto
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Franco Colapinto
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Franco Colapinto
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Gabriel Bortoleto
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Bortoleto
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Bortoleto
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Pierre Gasly
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pierre Gasly
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pierre Gasly
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 19 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Lance Stroll
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lance Stroll
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lance Stroll
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Liam Lawson
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liam Lawson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Liam Lawson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$767
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Nico Hulkenberg
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nico Hulkenberg
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Hulkenberg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Oliver Bearman
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Sergio Perez
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Perez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sergio Perez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Valtteri Bottas
0.6%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valtteri Bottas
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Valtteri Bottas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$328
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Esteban Ocon
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Esteban Ocon
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yuki Tsunoda
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 19 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yuki Tsunoda
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 19 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Cancellation/postponement handling differs: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if cancelled, moved, or not started within 48 hours of the scheduled start; Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if cancelled or rescheduled after Nov 28, 2026, so a postponement of 2-7 days is treated differently.
  • Polymarket explicitly says disqualifications or changes after publication of the Final Classification do not affect resolution; Kalshi says it pays after the Final Race Classification is posted but does not state a rule for later changes.
  • Polymarket lists Esteban Ocon and Yuki Tsunoda, which have no Kalshi counterpart; Kalshi lists Ryo Hirakawa, which has no Polymarket counterpart. Unmatched outcomes are not linked.
  • Polymarket also cites a consensus of credible sports news reporting alongside the F1 website, while Kalshi relies on the FIA Final Race Classification; both center on the FIA classification.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: formula1.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIA
Show full rule comparison
  • Cancellation/postponement handling differs: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if cancelled, moved, or not started within 48 hours of the scheduled start; Polymarket resolves to 'Other' if cancelled or rescheduled after Nov 28, 2026, so a postponement of 2-7 days is treated differently.
  • Polymarket explicitly says disqualifications or changes after publication of the Final Classification do not affect resolution; Kalshi says it pays after the Final Race Classification is posted but does not state a rule for later changes.
  • Polymarket lists Esteban Ocon and Yuki Tsunoda, which have no Kalshi counterpart; Kalshi lists Ryo Hirakawa, which has no Polymarket counterpart. Unmatched outcomes are not linked.
  • Polymarket also cites a consensus of credible sports news reporting alongside the F1 website, while Kalshi relies on the FIA Final Race Classification; both center on the FIA classification.
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Max Verstappen
  • Kimi Antonelli
  • Lando Norris

Live prices for Max Verstappen

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Las Vegas Grand Prix: Driver Winner". Max Verstappen leads at 32.5%. Next is Kimi Antonelli at 23.1%. $75K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix, scheduled for Nov 21, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Nov 28, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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