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What the markets expect
Max Verstappen 30.2%
Next is Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 21.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Max Verstappen30.2%34%30.2% fair33¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 52s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Max Verstappen30.2%Kalshi 34%(30.2% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Max Verstappen
30.2%
34%
30.2% fair
33¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Max Verstappen
30.2%
Kalshi 34%(30.2% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Max Verstappen
- Last price
- 34%
- Fair, margin removed
- 30.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $1K
Andrea Kimi Antonelli21.3%24%21.3% fair23¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 52s ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Andrea Kimi Antonelli21.3%Kalshi 24%(21.3% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
21.3%
24%
21.3% fair
23¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
21.3%
Kalshi 24%(21.3% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli
- Last price
- 24%
- Fair, margin removed
- 21.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $841
Lando Norris18.7%21%18.7% fair21¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 52s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Lando Norris18.7%Kalshi 21%(18.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Lando Norris
18.7%
21%
18.7% fair
21¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Lando Norris
18.7%
Kalshi 21%(18.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lando Norris
- Last price
- 21%
- Fair, margin removed
- 18.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $2K
George Russell10.7%12%10.7% fair7¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 52s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)George Russell10.7%Kalshi 12%(10.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
George Russell
10.7%
12%
10.7% fair
7¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
George Russell
10.7%
Kalshi 12%(10.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- George Russell
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $233
Charles Leclerc5.3%6%5.3% fair6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 52s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Charles Leclerc5.3%Kalshi 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Charles Leclerc
5.3%
6%
5.3% fair
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Charles Leclerc
5.3%
Kalshi 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Charles Leclerc
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $214
Lewis Hamilton5.3%6%5.3% fair6¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 52s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Lewis Hamilton5.3%Kalshi 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Lewis Hamilton
5.3%
6%
5.3% fair
6¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Lewis Hamilton
5.3%
Kalshi 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lewis Hamilton
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $549
Isack Hadjar0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Isack Hadjar0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Isack Hadjar
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Isack Hadjar
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Isack Hadjar
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Oscar Piastri0.9%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 52s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Oscar Piastri0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Oscar Piastri
0.9%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Oscar Piastri
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oscar Piastri
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Sergio Perez0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Sergio Perez0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Sergio Perez
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Sergio Perez
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sergio Perez
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $28
Alexander Albon0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Alexander Albon0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alexander Albon
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Alexander Albon
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexander Albon
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Show 12 more outcomesHide 12 outcomes
Arvid Lindblad0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Arvid Lindblad0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Arvid Lindblad
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Arvid Lindblad
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arvid Lindblad
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Carlos Sainz Jr.0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Carlos Sainz Jr.0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carlos Sainz Jr.
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carlos Sainz Jr.
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carlos Sainz Jr.
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Fernando Alonso0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Fernando Alonso0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Fernando Alonso
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Fernando Alonso
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fernando Alonso
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Franco Colapinto0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Franco Colapinto0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Franco Colapinto
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Franco Colapinto
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Franco Colapinto
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Gabriel Bortoleto0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Gabriel Bortoleto0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gabriel Bortoleto
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Gabriel Bortoleto
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gabriel Bortoleto
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Lance Stroll0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Lance Stroll0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lance Stroll
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lance Stroll
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lance Stroll
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Liam Lawson0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Liam Lawson0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Liam Lawson
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Liam Lawson
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liam Lawson
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Nico Hulkenberg0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Nico Hulkenberg0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nico Hulkenberg
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nico Hulkenberg
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nico Hulkenberg
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Oliver Bearman0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Oliver Bearman0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Oliver Bearman
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Oliver Bearman
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oliver Bearman
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Pierre Gasly0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Pierre Gasly0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Pierre Gasly
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Pierre Gasly
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pierre Gasly
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Ryo Hirakawa0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Ryo Hirakawa0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ryo Hirakawa
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Ryo Hirakawa
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryo Hirakawa
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Valtteri Bottas0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 52s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Valtteri Bottas0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Valtteri Bottas
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 52s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Valtteri Bottas
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Valtteri Bottas
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIA
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Max Verstappen
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli
- Lando Norris
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Las Vegas Grand Prix Qualifying Session: Pole Position". Max Verstappen leads at 30.2%. Next is Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 21.3%. $5K has traded across 22 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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