The Prediction Markets

Las Vegas vs San Francisco: Spread

Closes
Nov 10, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$355K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

San Francisco wins by over 1.5 points 81%

Next is San Francisco wins by over 2.5 points at 79%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 1.5 points
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 1.5 points
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 2.5 points
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 2.5 points
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 3.5 points
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 3.5 points
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 4.5 points
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 4.5 points
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 5.5 points
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 5.5 points
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 6.5 points
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 6.5 points
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 7.5 points
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 7.5 points
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 8.5 points
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 8.5 points
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 9.5 points
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 9.5 points
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 10.5 points
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 10.5 points
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 18 more outcomes
San Francisco wins by over 13.5 points
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 13.5 points
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 14.5 points
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 14.5 points
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 16.5 points
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 16.5 points
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 17.5 points
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 17.5 points
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 20.5 points
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 20.5 points
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 1.5 points
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 1.5 points
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 2.5 points
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 2.5 points
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$339
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 23.5 points
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 23.5 points
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 3.5 points
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 3.5 points
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$443
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 4.5 points
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 4.5 points
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$302K
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 5.5 points
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 5.5 points
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
San Francisco wins by over 27.5 points
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
San Francisco wins by over 27.5 points
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 6.5 points
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 6.5 points
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 7.5 points
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 7.5 points
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 9.5 points
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 9.5 points
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$213
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 10.5 points
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 10.5 points
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 13.5 points
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 13.5 points
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Las Vegas wins by over 14.5 points
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Las Vegas wins by over 14.5 points
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • San Francisco wins by over 1.5 points
  • San Francisco wins by over 2.5 points
  • San Francisco wins by over 3.5 points

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Las Vegas vs San Francisco: Spread". San Francisco wins by over 1.5 points leads at 81%. Next is San Francisco wins by over 2.5 points at 79%. $355K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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