The Prediction Markets

Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan

Starts in 2 h 40 minKickoff
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Alan Magadan 59%

Next is Completed Match at 51.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Alan Magadan
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alan Magadan
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$650
Trade this on Kalshi
Completed Match
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan Match O/U 21.5
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan Match O/U 22.5
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan Match O/U 23.5
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan Set 1 Winner
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolas Barrientos
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolas Barrientos
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Alan Magadan (-1.5) vs Nicolas Barrientos (+1.5)
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Nicolas Barrientos (-1.5) vs Alan Magadan (+1.5)
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alan Magadan
  • Completed Match
  • Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Alan Magadan for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Lima: Nicolas Barrientos vs Alan Magadan". Alan Magadan leads at 59%. Next is Completed Match at 51.5%. $4K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolas Barrientos and Alan Magadan in the Lima, Peru, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 8, 2026 at 12:20PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Barrientos' if Nicolas Barrientos advances against Alan Magadan. This market will resolve to 'Alan Magadan' if Alan Magadan advances against Nicolas Barrientos. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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