The Prediction Markets

Malaga vs Santander

Starts in 3 daysKickoff
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Málaga CF 39.5%

Next is Real Racing Club at 33.3%. The venues differ most on Draw (Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club) (Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 28%), a 1.5-point gap.

Málaga CF 39.5%Real Racing Club 33.3%Draw (Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club) 27.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Málaga CF
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 40%(39.2% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Málaga CF
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Malaga
Last price
40%
Fair, margin removed
39.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Real Racing Club
33.3%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 34%(33.3% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Real Racing Club
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Santander
Last price
34%
Fair, margin removed
33.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$945
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Draw (Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club)
27.2%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 28%(27.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw (Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club)
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
27.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$216
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket rules text provided is minimal: no explicit statement on 90 minutes plus stoppage time (extra time/penalties excluded), though league games have no extra time.
  • Postponement/cancellation handling: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if cancelled or rescheduled over 48 hours away; Polymarket text provided gives no postponement rule.
  • Resolution source not stated on either side; Kalshi names no source and Polymarket gives none.
  • Team naming differs (Santander vs Real Racing Club) but refers to the same Racing Santander club in the same fixture.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: laliga.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket rules text provided is minimal: no explicit statement on 90 minutes plus stoppage time (extra time/penalties excluded), though league games have no extra time.
  • Postponement/cancellation handling: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if cancelled or rescheduled over 48 hours away; Polymarket text provided gives no postponement rule.
  • Resolution source not stated on either side; Kalshi names no source and Polymarket gives none.
  • Team naming differs (Santander vs Real Racing Club) but refers to the same Racing Santander club in the same fixture.
  • Trading closes Nov 7, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 9, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Málaga CF
  • Real Racing Club
  • Draw (Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club)

Live prices for Málaga CF

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

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Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Malaga vs Santander". Málaga CF leads at 39.5%. Next is Real Racing Club at 33.3%. $5K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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