The Prediction Markets

Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama

Starts in 3 h 31 minKickoff
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama 74%

Next is Completed Match at 53%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama Set 1 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama Match O/U 22.5
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama Match O/U 23.5
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Maximus Jones (-1.5) vs Sho Katayama (+1.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Sho Katayama (-1.5) vs Maximus Jones (+1.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama Match O/U 21.5
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama
  • Completed Match
  • Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama". Matsuyama: Maximus Jones vs Sho Katayama leads at 74%. Next is Completed Match at 53%. $1K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Maximus Jones and Sho Katayama in the Matsuyama, Japan, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 10:20PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maximus Jones' if Maximus Jones advances against Sho Katayama. This market will resolve to 'Sho Katayama' if Sho Katayama advances against Maximus Jones. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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