The Prediction Markets

Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda

Starts in 6 hKickoff
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda 53%

Next is Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda at 52.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda Match O/U 21.5
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Niels McDonald
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Niels McDonald
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda Set 1 Winner
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Koki Matsuda
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Koki Matsuda
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda Match O/U 22.5
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda Match O/U 23.5
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Niels McDonald (-1.5) vs Koki Matsuda (+1.5)
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Koki Matsuda (-1.5) vs Niels McDonald (+1.5)
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
  • Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda
  • Niels McDonald

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda". Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda leads at 53%. Next is Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda at 52.5%. $13K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Niels McDonald and Koki Matsuda in the Matsuyama, originally scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 9:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Niels McDonald' if Niels McDonald advances against Koki Matsuda. This market will resolve to 'Koki Matsuda' if Koki Matsuda advances against Niels McDonald. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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