The Prediction Markets

Maxwell Award Finalists

Closes
Jan 7, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Anthony Smith 95%

Next is DeSean Bishop at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Anthony Smith
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Smith
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
DeSean Bishop
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeSean Bishop
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremiah Cobb
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremiah Cobb
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Kalshi
John Mateer
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Mateer
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
Owen McCown
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Owen McCown
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Kalshi
Jai'Den Thomas
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jai'Den Thomas
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
KJ Duff
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
KJ Duff
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Kalshi
LaNorris Sellers
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaNorris Sellers
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$675
Trade this on Kalshi
Nick Minicucci
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nick Minicucci
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Kalshi
C.J. Bailey
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
C.J. Bailey
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$459
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 53 more outcomes
Ellis Robinson IV
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ellis Robinson IV
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$986
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Hoover
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Hoover
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$554
Trade this on Kalshi
Kewan Lacy
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kewan Lacy
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Charlie Becker
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charlie Becker
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$467
Trade this on Kalshi
Demond Williams Jr.
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Demond Williams Jr.
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Kalshi
Julian Lewis
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julian Lewis
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Kalshi
LJ Martin
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
LJ Martin
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$572
Trade this on Kalshi
Julian Sayin
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julian Sayin
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremiah Smith
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremiah Smith
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi
Micah Alejado
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Micah Alejado
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$266
Trade this on Kalshi
C.J. Carr
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
C.J. Carr
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson Arnold
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Arnold
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Jennings
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Jennings
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Malachi Toney
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malachi Toney
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Kalshi
Mario Craver
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mario Craver
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Fletcher Jr.
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Fletcher Jr.
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi
Nico Iamaleava
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Iamaleava
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Noah Fifita
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Fifita
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Leavitt
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Leavitt
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Trey'Dez Green
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trey'Dez Green
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Trinidad Chambliss
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trinidad Chambliss
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Cameron Dickey
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cameron Dickey
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Kalshi
Broc Lowry
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Broc Lowry
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Caleb Hawkins
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Caleb Hawkins
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Kalshi
Gunner Stockton
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gunner Stockton
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Kalshi
Leonard Moore
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leonard Moore
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyrique Tucker
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyrique Tucker
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Bo Jackson
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bo Jackson
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Byrum Brown
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Byrum Brown
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Xavier Atkins
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Atkins
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Colin Simmons
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colin Simmons
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Kalshi
Darian Mensah
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Darian Mensah
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Kalshi
Dylan Stewart
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dylan Stewart
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Kalshi
Lucky Sutton
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lucky Sutton
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Kalshi
Jayden Maiava
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jayden Maiava
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Kalshi
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$498
Trade this on Kalshi
Arch Manning
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arch Manning
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Devon Dampier
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Devon Dampier
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cam Coleman
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cam Coleman
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Kalshi
Justice Haynes
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justice Haynes
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$678
Trade this on Kalshi
Maddux Madsen
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maddux Madsen
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$336
Trade this on Kalshi
Rocco Becht
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rocco Becht
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$346
Trade this on Kalshi
Ahmad Hardy
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ahmad Hardy
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Kalshi
Cam Cook
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cam Cook
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Kalshi
Dante Moore
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dante Moore
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Kalshi
Darius Taylor
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Darius Taylor
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$366
Trade this on Kalshi
Duce Robinson
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duce Robinson
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Kalshi
Bryce Underwood
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bryce Underwood
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Marcel Reed
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marcel Reed
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Rasheem Biles
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rasheem Biles
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi
Isaac Brown
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Isaac Brown
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$594
Trade this on Kalshi
Sammy Brown
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sammy Brown
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$652
Trade this on Kalshi
DJ Lagway
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
DJ Lagway
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, Fox Sports

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthony Smith
  • DeSean Bishop
  • Jeremiah Cobb

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Maxwell Award Finalists". Anthony Smith leads at 95%. Next is DeSean Bishop at 95%. $20K has traded across 63 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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