The Prediction Markets

Mayot vs Shimabukuro

Starts in 8 hKickoff
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Mayot 54.5%

Next is Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner at 53%. The venues differ most on Mayot (Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Mayot
54.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 39s agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harold Mayot
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 54¢.

Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Game Spread +/-0.5
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Match O/U 21.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Match O/U 22.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Completed Match
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sho Shimabukuro
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sho Shimabukuro
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Kalshi
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Match O/U 23.5
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Harold Mayot (-1.5) vs Sho Shimabukuro (+1.5)
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Sho Shimabukuro (-1.5) vs Harold Mayot (+1.5)
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 12, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 19, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mayot
  • Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner
  • Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner

Live prices for Mayot

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Mayot vs Shimabukuro". Mayot leads at 54.5%. Next is Taipei: Harold Mayot vs Sho Shimabukuro Set 1 Winner at 53%. $4K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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