The Prediction Markets

Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov

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Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Alibek Kachmazov 74%

Next is Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 at 50.5%. The venues differ most on Vandermeersch (Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 26%), a 24-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Alibek Kachmazov
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alibek Kachmazov
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Kalshi
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Alibek Kachmazov (-1.5) vs Cyril Vandermeersch (+1.5)
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Match O/U 22.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Match O/U 23.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Match O/U 21.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Cyril Vandermeersch (-1.5) vs Alibek Kachmazov (+1.5)
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Set 1 Winner
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$319
Trade this on Polymarket
VandermeerschArb
40.1%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 26%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cyril Vandermeersch
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 28¢ and selling on Polymarket at 49¢ nets 2100 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Vandermeersch on Kalshi at 28¢, sell on Polymarket at 49¢ (2100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 22, 2026, 10:10 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2026, 10:10 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alibek Kachmazov
  • Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
  • Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Alibek Kachmazov for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov". Alibek Kachmazov leads at 74%. Next is Metz: Cyril Vandermeersch vs Alibek Kachmazov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 at 50.5%. $11K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Cyril Vandermeersch and Alibek Kachmazov in the Metz, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 15, 2026 at 5:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cyril Vandermeersch' if Cyril Vandermeersch advances against Alibek Kachmazov. This market will resolve to 'Alibek Kachmazov' if Alibek Kachmazov advances against Cyril Vandermeersch. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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