The Prediction Markets

Michelsen vs Alcaraz

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$49K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Carlos Alcaraz 84%

Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 74%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Carlos Alcaraz
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos Alcaraz
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 21.5
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-4.5
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 22.5
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 23.5
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 Winner
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 Winner
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelsen
17.7%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 18%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Michelsen
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 11, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Carlos Alcaraz
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Carlos Alcaraz for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Michelsen vs Alcaraz". Carlos Alcaraz leads at 84%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 74%. $49K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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