The Prediction Markets

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13?

Closed
Apr 14, 2026
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 195 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yes
97.9%
Polymarket 97.9%polled, 4697 h agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
97.9%
As of
Polled 195 d ago
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
97.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: strategy.com

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 7-13?". Yes last traded at 97.9%. $21K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 14, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces a purchase of more Bitcoin than the number specified in the title between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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