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What the markets expect
Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points 62%
Next is Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points at 60%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points62%62%59¢ bid, 62¢ askpolled, 20s ago62¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $161 (1.61x)Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points62%Kalshi 62%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points
62%
62%
59¢ bid, 62¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
62¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 62¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $161 (1.61x)
- Volume
- $68
Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points60%60%58¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 20s ago60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points60%Kalshi 60%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points
60%
60%
58¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $3K
Green Bay wins by over 3.5 points49%49%48¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 20s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Green Bay wins by over 3.5 points49%Kalshi 49%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Green Bay wins by over 3.5 points
49%
49%
48¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Green Bay wins by over 3.5 points
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 3.5 points
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $5K
Green Bay wins by over 4.5 points47%47%45¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 20s ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Green Bay wins by over 4.5 points47%Kalshi 47%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Green Bay wins by over 4.5 points
47%
47%
45¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Green Bay wins by over 4.5 points
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 4.5 points
- Last price
- 47%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $527
Green Bay wins by over 5.5 points45%45%42¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Green Bay wins by over 5.5 points45%Kalshi 45%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Green Bay wins by over 5.5 points
45%
45%
42¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Green Bay wins by over 5.5 points
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 5.5 points
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 42¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $1K
Green Bay wins by over 6.5 points41%41%38¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 20s ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Green Bay wins by over 6.5 points41%Kalshi 41%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Green Bay wins by over 6.5 points
41%
41%
38¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Green Bay wins by over 6.5 points
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 6.5 points
- Last price
- 41%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $635
Minnesota wins by over 1.5 points34.5%34.5%33¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 20s ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Minnesota wins by over 1.5 points34.5%Kalshi 34.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Minnesota wins by over 1.5 points
34.5%
34.5%
33¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Minnesota wins by over 1.5 points
34.5%
Kalshi 34.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 1.5 points
- Last price
- 34.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
Green Bay wins by over 7.5 points34%34%33¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 20s ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Green Bay wins by over 7.5 points34%Kalshi 34%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Green Bay wins by over 7.5 points
34%
34%
33¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Green Bay wins by over 7.5 points
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 7.5 points
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $279
Minnesota wins by over 2.5 points32.5%32.5%31¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 20s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Minnesota wins by over 2.5 points32.5%Kalshi 32.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Minnesota wins by over 2.5 points
32.5%
32.5%
31¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Minnesota wins by over 2.5 points
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 2.5 points
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
Green Bay wins by over 9.5 points31%31%29¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 20s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Green Bay wins by over 9.5 points31%Kalshi 31%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Green Bay wins by over 9.5 points
31%
31%
29¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Green Bay wins by over 9.5 points
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 9.5 points
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $80
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
Green Bay wins by over 10.5 points27.5%27.5%25¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 20s ago30¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Green Bay wins by over 10.5 points27.5%Kalshi 27.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Green Bay wins by over 10.5 points
27.5%
27.5%
25¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
30¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Green Bay wins by over 10.5 points
27.5%
Kalshi 27.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 10.5 points
- Last price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points25.5%25.5%24¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 20s ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points25.5%Kalshi 25.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points
25.5%
25.5%
24¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 3.5 points
- Last price
- 25.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
Minnesota wins by over 4.5 points24%24%22¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 20s ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Minnesota wins by over 4.5 points24%Kalshi 24%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Minnesota wins by over 4.5 points
24%
24%
22¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Minnesota wins by over 4.5 points
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 4.5 points
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points21.5%21.5%20¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 20s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points21.5%Kalshi 21.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points
21.5%
21.5%
20¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points
21.5%
Kalshi 21.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 5.5 points
- Last price
- 21.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
Green Bay wins by over 13.5 points21.5%21.5%19¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 20s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Green Bay wins by over 13.5 points21.5%Kalshi 21.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Green Bay wins by over 13.5 points
21.5%
21.5%
19¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Green Bay wins by over 13.5 points
21.5%
Kalshi 21.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 13.5 points
- Last price
- 21.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
Green Bay wins by over 14.5 points19%19%15¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 20s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Green Bay wins by over 14.5 points19%Kalshi 19%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Green Bay wins by over 14.5 points
19%
19%
15¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Green Bay wins by over 14.5 points
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 14.5 points
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
Minnesota wins by over 6.5 points19%19%18¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 20s ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Minnesota wins by over 6.5 points19%Kalshi 19%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Minnesota wins by over 6.5 points
19%
19%
18¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Minnesota wins by over 6.5 points
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 6.5 points
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Green Bay wins by over 16.5 points18%18%13¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 20s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Green Bay wins by over 16.5 points18%Kalshi 18%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Green Bay wins by over 16.5 points
18%
18%
13¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Green Bay wins by over 16.5 points
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 16.5 points
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
Minnesota wins by over 7.5 points17%17%15¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 20s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Minnesota wins by over 7.5 points17%Kalshi 17%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Minnesota wins by over 7.5 points
17%
17%
15¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Minnesota wins by over 7.5 points
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 7.5 points
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
Minnesota wins by over 10.5 points15.5%15.5%8¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 20s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Minnesota wins by over 10.5 points15.5%Kalshi 15.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Minnesota wins by over 10.5 points
15.5%
15.5%
8¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Minnesota wins by over 10.5 points
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 10.5 points
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points15%15%10¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 20s ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points15%Kalshi 15%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points
15%
15%
10¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 9.5 points
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
Green Bay wins by over 17.5 points14%14%10¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 20s ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Green Bay wins by over 17.5 points14%Kalshi 14%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Green Bay wins by over 17.5 points
14%
14%
10¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Green Bay wins by over 17.5 points
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 17.5 points
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
Green Bay wins by over 20.5 points11%11%7¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 20s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Green Bay wins by over 20.5 points11%Kalshi 11%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Green Bay wins by over 20.5 points
11%
11%
7¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Green Bay wins by over 20.5 points
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay wins by over 20.5 points
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Minnesota wins by over 13.5 points10%10%5¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 20s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Minnesota wins by over 13.5 points10%Kalshi 10%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Minnesota wins by over 13.5 points
10%
10%
5¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Minnesota wins by over 13.5 points
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 13.5 points
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Minnesota wins by over 14.5 points8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 20s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Minnesota wins by over 14.5 points8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Minnesota wins by over 14.5 points
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Minnesota wins by over 14.5 points
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota wins by over 14.5 points
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points
- Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points
- Green Bay wins by over 3.5 points
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota vs Green Bay: Spread". Green Bay wins by over 1.5 points leads at 62%. Next is Green Bay wins by over 2.5 points at 60%. $12K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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