The Prediction Markets

Molcan vs Fritz

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$416K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner 100%

Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner at 100%. The venues differ most on Molcan (Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 55%), a 5.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
100%
Polymarket 100%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
99.6%
Polymarket 99.6%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 21.5
Last price
99.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.1¢
Volume
$71
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
99.5%
Polymarket 99.5%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 22.5
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
84¢
Volume
$487
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Match O/U 23.5
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Molcan
50.9%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 55%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$303K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Molcan
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 7 more outcomes
Completed Match
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 3 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Fritz
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Fritz
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 2 Winner
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Game Spread +/-4.5
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$353
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 11, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 18, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner
  • Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Molcan vs Fritz". Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner leads at 100%. Next is Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz Set 1 Winner at 100%. $416K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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