The Prediction Markets

Moriya vs Bolt

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Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
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What the markets expect

Alex Bolt 71%

Next is Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt at 53%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Alex Bolt
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Bolt
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt Match O/U 21.5
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 4 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Polymarket
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt Match O/U 22.5
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt Match O/U 23.5
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt Set 1 Winner
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Hiroki Moriya
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hiroki Moriya
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alex Bolt
  • Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt
  • Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Alex Bolt for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Moriya vs Bolt". Alex Bolt leads at 71%. Next is Brisbane 3: Hiroki Moriya vs Alex Bolt at 53%. $3K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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