The Prediction Markets

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Winner

Closes
Nov 16, 2026, in 11 days
Traded
$326K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Kyle Larson 37.4%

Next is Ryan Blaney at 13%. The venues differ most on Kyle Larson (Polymarket 95.6%, Kalshi 18%), a 78-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kyle Larson
37.4%
Polymarket 95.6%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 18%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kyle Larson
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kyle Larson
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ryan Blaney
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Blaney
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyler Reddick
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Reddick
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chase Briscoe
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chase Briscoe
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Bell
8%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Bell
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Bell
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

William Byron
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Byron
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Denny Hamlin
4.4%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denny Hamlin
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denny Hamlin
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bubba Wallace
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bubba Wallace
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chase Elliott
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chase Elliott
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Joey Logano
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joey Logano
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 31 more outcomes
Ty Gibbs
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Gibbs
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Cindric
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Cindric
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$157
Trade this on Kalshi
Corey Heim
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corey Heim
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alex Bowman
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Bowman
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Buescher
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Buescher
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Berry
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Berry
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$284
Trade this on Kalshi
Ross Chastain
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ross Chastain
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Preece
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Preece
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
AJ Allmendinger
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
AJ Allmendinger
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Hill
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Hill
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$935
Trade this on Kalshi
Carson Hocevar
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carson Hocevar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Suarez
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Suarez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
Shane van Gisbergen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shane van Gisbergen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Kalshi
Austin Dillon
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Dillon
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Keselowski
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Keselowski
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Casey Mears
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Casey Mears
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chad Finchum
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chad Finchum
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cody Ware
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cody Ware
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cole Custer
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cole Custer
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Connor Zilisch
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Zilisch
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Erik Jones
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erik Jones
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
J.J. Yeley
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.J. Yeley
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
John Hunter Nemechek
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Hunter Nemechek
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin Haley
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Haley
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael McDowell
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael McDowell
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Noah Gragson
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noah Gragson
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Riley Herbst
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Riley Herbst
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Todd Gilliland
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Todd Gilliland
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ty Dillon
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Dillon
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Zane Smith
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zane Smith
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 16, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 16, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kyle Larson
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Tyler Reddick

Live prices for Kyle Larson

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Winner". Kyle Larson leads at 37.4%. Next is Ryan Blaney at 13%. $326K has traded across 41 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 16, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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