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What the markets expect
Sam Mayer 64%
Next is Austin Hill at 62%. The venues differ most on Sheldon Creed (Polymarket 1.4%, Kalshi 61%), a 60-point gap.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Sam Mayer64%Not listed64%51¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 2 min ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)Sam Mayer64%Kalshi 64%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Sam Mayer
64%
Not listed
64%
51¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Sam Mayer
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sam Mayer
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
Austin Hill62%Not listed62%51¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 2 min ago73¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $137 (1.37x)Austin Hill62%Kalshi 62%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Austin Hill
62%
Not listed
62%
51¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
73¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Austin Hill
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Austin Hill
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
Brent Crews62%Not listed62%54¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 2 min ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Brent Crews62%Kalshi 62%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Brent Crews
62%
Not listed
62%
54¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Brent Crews
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brent Crews
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
Justin AllgaierArb60.4%53.5%52¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 1 min ago81%65¢ bid, 81¢ askpolled, 2 min ago55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Justin AllgaierArb60.4%Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 81%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Justin AllgaierArb
60.4%
53.5%
52¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
81%
65¢ bid, 81¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Justin AllgaierArb
60.4%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 81%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Justin Allgaier
- Last price
- 53.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $15K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Justin Allgaier
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
- Volume
- $8
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 55¢ and selling on Kalshi at 65¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.
Brandon Jones60%Not listed60%48¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 2 min ago60¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Brandon Jones60%Kalshi 60%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Brandon Jones
60%
Not listed
60%
48¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
60¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Brandon Jones
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brandon Jones
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $308
Taylor Gray56%Not listed56%45¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 2 min ago67¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $149 (1.49x)Taylor Gray56%Kalshi 56%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Taylor Gray
56%
Not listed
56%
45¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
67¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Taylor Gray
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Taylor Gray
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
Rajah Caruth45%Not listed45%21¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 min ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Rajah Caruth45%Kalshi 45%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Rajah Caruth
45%
Not listed
45%
21¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Rajah Caruth
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rajah Caruth
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $2
Sammy Smith44%Not listed44%36¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 2 min ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)Sammy Smith44%Kalshi 44%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Sammy Smith
44%
Not listed
44%
36¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Sammy Smith
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sammy Smith
- Last price
- 44%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 36¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $21
Jesse LoveArb43.5%20%8.7¢ bid, 31.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago67%59¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 2 min ago31.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $321 (3.21x)Jesse LoveArb43.5%Polymarket 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $321 (3.21x)
Jesse LoveArb
43.5%
20%
8.7¢ bid, 31.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
67%
59¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
31.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $321 (3.21x)
Jesse LoveArb
43.5%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $321 (3.21x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jesse Love
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $321 (3.21x)
- Volume
- $6K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jesse Love
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 31.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 59¢ nets 2780 bps before fees.
Corey DayArb42.7%18.4%7.3¢ bid, 29.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago67%57¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 2 min ago29.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $339 (3.39x)Corey DayArb42.7%Polymarket 18.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $339 (3.39x)
Corey DayArb
42.7%
18.4%
7.3¢ bid, 29.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
67%
57¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
29.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $339 (3.39x)
Corey DayArb
42.7%
Polymarket 18.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 67%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $339 (3.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Corey Day
- Last price
- 18.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $339 (3.39x)
- Volume
- $914
Kalshi
- Contract
- Corey Day
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 29.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 57¢ nets 2750 bps before fees.
Show 28 more outcomesHide 28 outcomes
William Sawalich39.5%Not listed39.5%35¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 2 min ago44¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $227 (2.27x)William Sawalich39.5%Kalshi 39.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
William Sawalich
39.5%
Not listed
39.5%
35¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
44¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
William Sawalich
39.5%
Kalshi 39.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- William Sawalich
- Last price
- 39.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
Carson KvapilArb36.3%8.1%7.5¢ bid, 8.6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago64.5%52¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 2 min ago8.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)Carson KvapilArb36.3%Polymarket 8.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 64.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Carson KvapilArb
36.3%
8.1%
7.5¢ bid, 8.6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
64.5%
52¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
8.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Carson KvapilArb
36.3%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 64.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Carson Kvapil
- Last price
- 8.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,163 (11.6x)
- Volume
- $2K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carson Kvapil
- Last price
- 64.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 8.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 52¢ nets 4340 bps before fees.
Parker Retzlaff31%Not listed31%26¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 2 min ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Parker Retzlaff31%Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Parker Retzlaff
31%
Not listed
31%
26¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Parker Retzlaff
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Parker Retzlaff
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
Ryan Sieg30%Not listed30%22¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 2 min ago38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Ryan Sieg30%Kalshi 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Ryan Sieg
30%
Not listed
30%
22¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Ryan Sieg
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Sieg
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
Anthony Alfredo27%Not listed27%13¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 2 min ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Anthony Alfredo27%Kalshi 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Anthony Alfredo
27%
Not listed
27%
13¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Anthony Alfredo
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anthony Alfredo
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
Harrison Burton23%Not listed23%15¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 2 min ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Harrison Burton23%Kalshi 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Harrison Burton
23%
Not listed
23%
15¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Harrison Burton
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Harrison Burton
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $225
Jeremy Clements22%Not listed22%11¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, 2 min ago33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Jeremy Clements22%Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Jeremy Clements
22%
Not listed
22%
11¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Jeremy Clements
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeremy Clements
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
Dean Thompson18%Not listed18%11¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 2 min ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Dean Thompson18%Kalshi 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Dean Thompson
18%
Not listed
18%
11¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Dean Thompson
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dean Thompson
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $106
Sheldon CreedArb16.3%1.4%0.4¢ bid, 2.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago61%61¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 2 min ago2.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)Sheldon CreedArb16.3%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 61%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Sheldon CreedArb
16.3%
1.4%
0.4¢ bid, 2.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
61%
61¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
2.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Sheldon CreedArb
16.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 61%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sheldon Creed
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,348 (43.5x)
- Volume
- $7K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sheldon Creed
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
- Volume
- $250
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 2.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 61¢ nets 5870 bps before fees.
Nick Sanchez12.5%Not listed12.5%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, 2 min ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Nick Sanchez12.5%Kalshi 12.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Nick Sanchez
12.5%
Not listed
12.5%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Nick Sanchez
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nick Sanchez
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
Jeb Burton8%Not listed8%5¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 2 min ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Jeb Burton8%Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Jeb Burton
8%
Not listed
8%
5¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Jeb Burton
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jeb Burton
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Andrew Patterson6%Not listed6%— bid, 91¢ askpolled, 2 min ago91¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Andrew Patterson6%Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Andrew Patterson
6%
Not listed
6%
— bid, 91¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
91¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Andrew Patterson
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Andrew Patterson
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 91¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $250
Brennan Poole4.5%Not listed4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 2 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Brennan Poole4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Brennan Poole
4.5%
Not listed
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Brennan Poole
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brennan Poole
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Kyle Sieg4.5%Not listed4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 2 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Kyle Sieg4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kyle Sieg
4.5%
Not listed
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kyle Sieg
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kyle Sieg
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Patrick Staropoli3.5%Not listed3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 2 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Patrick Staropoli3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Patrick Staropoli
3.5%
Not listed
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Patrick Staropoli
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Staropoli
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Josh Williams3%Not listed3%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Josh Williams3%Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Josh Williams
3%
Not listed
3%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Josh Williams
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Williams
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 102.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 102.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 10
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 10
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 10
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Brad Perez2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Brad Perez2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brad Perez
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brad Perez
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brad Perez
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Brad PerezKalshi: “Blaine Perkins”2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Brad Perez2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brad Perez
Kalshi: “Blaine Perkins”
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Brad Perez
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Blaine Perkins
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Lavar Scott2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Lavar Scott2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lavar Scott
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Lavar Scott
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lavar Scott
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Mason Maggio2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Mason Maggio2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Mason Maggio
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Mason Maggio
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mason Maggio
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Preston Pardus2.5%Not listed2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Preston Pardus2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Preston Pardus
2.5%
Not listed
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Preston Pardus
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Preston Pardus
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Josh Bilicki2%Not listed2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Josh Bilicki2%Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Josh Bilicki
2%
Not listed
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Josh Bilicki
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Bilicki
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Garrett Smithley1.5%Not listed1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Garrett Smithley1.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Garrett Smithley
1.5%
Not listed
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Garrett Smithley
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Garrett Smithley
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Patrick Emerling1.5%Not listed1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Patrick Emerling1.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Patrick Emerling
1.5%
Not listed
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Patrick Emerling
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Emerling
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Ryan Ellis1.5%Not listed1.5%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 2 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Ryan Ellis1.5%Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Ryan Ellis
1.5%
Not listed
1.5%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Ryan Ellis
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Ellis
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
Dawson Cram1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Dawson Cram1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Dawson Cram
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Dawson Cram
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dawson Cram
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Joey Gase1%Not listed1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Joey Gase1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Joey Gase
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Joey Gase
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Joey Gase
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Sheldon Creed on Polymarket at 2.3¢, sell on Kalshi at 61¢ (5870 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: nascar.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Sam Mayer
- Austin Hill
- Brent Crews
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Sam Mayer for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship: Top 10 Finishers". Sam Mayer leads at 64%. Next is Austin Hill at 62%. $35K has traded across 38 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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