The Prediction Markets

NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship: Top 3 Finishers

Closes
Nov 15, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Justin Allgaier 49.6%

Next is Sam Mayer at 40%. The venues differ most on Carson Kvapil (Polymarket 3.9%, Kalshi 25.5%), a 22-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Justin AllgaierArb
49.6%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 47%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Allgaier
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Allgaier
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 47¢ and selling on Polymarket at 50¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Sam Mayer
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Mayer
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
Corey DayArb
27.6%
Polymarket 21.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 27.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $368 (3.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
Corey Day
Last price
21.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27.2¢
Sell Yes
16.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$368 (3.68x)
Volume
$914
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Corey Day
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 27.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 34¢ nets 680 bps before fees.

Jesse Love
25.7%
Polymarket 22.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 27.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $366 (3.66x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Love
Last price
22.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27.3¢
Sell Yes
17.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$366 (3.66x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Love
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$152
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 27.3¢.

J.J. Yeley
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.J. Yeley
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 3
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Auto Parts: Will Rodgers to finish in the top 3
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brent Crews
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brent Crews
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nick Sanchez
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nick Sanchez
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Patrick Emerling
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Emerling
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Preston Pardus
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Preston Pardus
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 29 more outcomes
Austin Hill
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Austin Hill
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Gray
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Gray
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon Jones
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Jones
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Carson KvapilArb
14.7%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carson Kvapil
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carson Kvapil
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 9¢ nets 330 bps before fees.

William Sawalich
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Sawalich
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sheldon CreedArb
10.9%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 18.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sheldon Creed
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sheldon Creed
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 120 bps before fees.

Sammy Smith
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sammy Smith
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rajah Caruth
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rajah Caruth
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Patterson
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Patterson
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthony Alfredo
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Alfredo
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Williams
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Williams
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Parker Retzlaff
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parker Retzlaff
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Perez
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Perez
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Clements
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Clements
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lavar Scott
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lavar Scott
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Sieg
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Sieg
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Perez
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blaine Perkins
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brennan Poole
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brennan Poole
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dean Thompson
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dean Thompson
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Garrett Smithley
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garrett Smithley
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joey Gase
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joey Gase
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Bilicki
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Bilicki
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kyle Sieg
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyle Sieg
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mason Maggio
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mason Maggio
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Patrick Staropoli
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Staropoli
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Ellis
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Ellis
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Harrison Burton
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harrison Burton
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dawson Cram
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dawson Cram
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeb Burton
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeb Burton
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Corey Day on Polymarket at 27.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 34¢ (680 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: nascar.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 7, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Justin Allgaier
  • Sam Mayer
  • Corey Day

Live prices for Justin Allgaier

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship: Top 3 Finishers". Justin Allgaier leads at 49.6%. Next is Sam Mayer at 40%. $36K has traded across 39 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 15, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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