The Prediction Markets

NCAA Football: Team to Qualify for 2026 Conference USA Championship Game

Closes
Dec 6, 2026, in 21 days
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Liberty Flames 74.5%

Next is Jacksonville State Gamecocks at 73%. The venues differ most on Missouri State Bears (Polymarket 51.8%, Kalshi 2%), a 50-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Liberty Flames
74.5%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 99%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liberty Flames
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Liberty
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks
73%
Polymarket 52%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 94%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jacksonville St.
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
20.9%
Polymarket 36.9%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Last price
36.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
73.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$136 (1.36x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Middle Tennessee
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Missouri State Bears
14.5%
Polymarket 51.8%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Missouri State Bears
Last price
51.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Missouri St.
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Delaware Blue Hens
14.1%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delaware Blue Hens
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Delaware
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
14%
Polymarket 49.9%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Last price
49.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Western Kentucky
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Kennesaw State Owls
1.1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kennesaw State Owls
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kennesaw St.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity · AI-reviewed

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Florida International
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florida International
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Kalshi
New Mexico St.
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Mexico St.
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$298
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Houston
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Houston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: 6 differences

Where they differ

  • Polymarket resolves No early if a team is mathematically eliminated; Kalshi only resolves when qualification is determined. Same final result in ordinary scenarios, but early-resolution timing differs.
  • Polymarket resolves No if the game is cancelled, postponed past Jan 15, 2027, or the matchup is not declared by then; Kalshi rules give no cancellation/postponement handling.
  • Polymarket names Conference USA official information (or credible reporting consensus) as the resolution source; Kalshi rules name no source.
  • Polymarket lists only 7 of the 10 teams (no Florida International, New Mexico State, Sam Houston outcomes in the main list); those Kalshi outcomes have no linked counterpart.
  • Kalshi rules do not define 'qualifies' or a deadline explicitly, while Polymarket rules specify a Jan 15, 2027 cutoff; end dates in metadata differ (Kalshi Jan 10, 2027 vs Polymarket Dec 6, 2026).
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 6, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Polymarket resolves No early if a team is mathematically eliminated; Kalshi only resolves when qualification is determined. Same final result in ordinary scenarios, but early-resolution timing differs.
  • Polymarket resolves No if the game is cancelled, postponed past Jan 15, 2027, or the matchup is not declared by then; Kalshi rules give no cancellation/postponement handling.
  • Polymarket names Conference USA official information (or credible reporting consensus) as the resolution source; Kalshi rules name no source.
  • Polymarket lists only 7 of the 10 teams (no Florida International, New Mexico State, Sam Houston outcomes in the main list); those Kalshi outcomes have no linked counterpart.
  • Kalshi rules do not define 'qualifies' or a deadline explicitly, while Polymarket rules specify a Jan 15, 2027 cutoff; end dates in metadata differ (Kalshi Jan 10, 2027 vs Polymarket Dec 6, 2026).
  • Trading closes Dec 6, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 10, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Liberty Flames
  • Jacksonville State Gamecocks
  • Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Live prices for Liberty Flames

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NCAA Football: Team to Qualify for 2026 Conference USA Championship Game". Liberty Flames leads at 74.5%. Next is Jacksonville State Gamecocks at 73%. $36K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 6, 2026.

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 Conference USA Championship Game. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 Conference USA Championship Game (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Conference USA Championship Game is cancelled, postponed after January 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Conference USA Championship Game matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Conference USA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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