The Prediction Markets

Neuchrist vs Ghibaudo

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Antoine Ghibaudo 69%

Next is Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner at 58.5%. The venues differ most on Neuchrist (Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 28%), a 2.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Antoine Ghibaudo
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antoine Ghibaudo
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
17¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 2 Winner
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Match O/U 21.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Match O/U 22.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Match O/U 23.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Maximilian Neuchrist (-1.5) vs Antoine Ghibaudo (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 34s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Set Handicap: Antoine Ghibaudo (-1.5) vs Maximilian Neuchrist (+1.5)
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
NeuchristArb
28.8%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 34s agoKalshi 28%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maximilian Neuchrist
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 29¢ and selling on Polymarket at 30¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Neuchrist on Kalshi at 29¢, sell on Polymarket at 30¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Nov 22, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 29, 2026, 12:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Antoine Ghibaudo
  • Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner
  • Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Antoine Ghibaudo for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Neuchrist vs Ghibaudo". Antoine Ghibaudo leads at 69%. Next is Metz: Maximilian Neuchrist vs Antoine Ghibaudo Set 1 Winner at 58.5%. $16K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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