The Prediction Markets

NHL: 2026-27 Atlantic Division Winner

Closes
Apr 20, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$62K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Tampa Bay Lightning 36.7%

Next is Florida Panthers at 16.1%. The venues differ most on Detroit Red Wings (Polymarket 10.1%, Kalshi 1%), a 9.1-point gap.

Tampa Bay Lightning 36.7%Florida Panthers 16.1%Boston Bruins 14.3%Ottawa Senators 10.7%Buffalo Sabres 8.7%3 others 13.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tampa Bay Lightning
36.7%
Polymarket 45%(41% fair)polled, 16s agoKalshi 37%(35.2% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tampa Bay Lightning
Last price
45%
Fair, margin removed
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tampa Bay Lightning
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
35.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 41¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 45¢.

Florida Panthers
16.1%
Polymarket 11%(10% fair)polled, 16s agoKalshi 19%(18.1% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Florida Panthers
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Florida Panthers
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
18.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Boston BruinsArb
14.3%
Polymarket 12.5%(11.4% fair)polled, 16s agoKalshi 16%(15.2% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boston Bruins
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Boston Bruins
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
15.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 14¢ and selling on Kalshi at 16¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Ottawa Senators
10.7%
Polymarket 12.5%(11.4% fair)polled, 16s agoKalshi 11%(10.5% fair)polled, 16s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ottawa Senators
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
11.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ottawa Senators
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Buffalo Sabres
8.7%
Polymarket 7%(6.4% fair)polled, 16s agoKalshi 10%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Buffalo Sabres
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Buffalo Sabres
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Montreal Canadiens
7.6%
Polymarket 5%polled, 16s agoKalshi 9%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Montreal Canadiens
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Montreal Canadiens
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Detroit Red Wings
3%
Polymarket 10.1%(9.2% fair)polled, 16s agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Detroit Red Wings
Last price
10.1%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$505 (5.05x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Detroit Red Wings
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Toronto Maple Leafs
2.9%
Polymarket 6.7%(6.1% fair)polled, 16s agoKalshi 2%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toronto Maple Leafs
Last price
6.7%
Fair, margin removed
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toronto Maple Leafs
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Boston Bruins on Polymarket at 14¢, sell on Kalshi at 16¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: NHL, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Trading closes Apr 20, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and May 1, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tampa Bay Lightning
  • Florida Panthers
  • Boston Bruins

Live prices for Tampa Bay Lightning

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "NHL: 2026-27 Atlantic Division Winner". Tampa Bay Lightning leads at 36.7%. Next is Florida Panthers at 16.1%. $62K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 20, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the Atlantic Division in the 2026-27 NHL regular season, as determined by the final official NHL standings, including any official NHL tiebreakers. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the Atlantic Division (e.g. mathematical elimination before the end of the regular season), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 NHL regular season is cancelled, or has not been completed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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